COL Dencio S. Acop (Ret), PhD | October 22, 2026

Does use of the J16 aircraft and other military assets before unseen mean escalation by the PLA in the West Philippine Sea? Absolutely! Does this mean war is about to be ignited? Absolutely not!

Of course there is escalation. There has been, for quite some time now. Regardless of the 2016 Arbitral Ruling …

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Philippine Interior and Local Government Secretary Juanito Victor Remulla, chair of the 20th ASEAN Ministerial Meeting on Transnational Crime, at a press briefing on Wednesday, October 21.

Anna Mogato | October 21, 2026

MANILA — Southeast Asian nations vowed to crack down on transnational crimes proliferating in the region, especially with the increasing trend of “micro” scam hubs, strengthening law enforcement and inter-state collaboration.

Philippine Interior and Local Government Secretary Juanito Victor Remulla, chair of the 20th ASEAN Ministerial Meeting on Transnational Crime, said Southeast Asian states are considering a regional extradition treaty to facilitate the transfer of criminals operating across borders.

“We share information, but as far as law enforcement is concerned, that is a local matter,” Remulla said.

“So what is important is that we share information, and I give credit to all ASEAN nations for being active in that area.”

A report from the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime said cyber scam operations in parts of Southeast Asia lead to potential economic losses of $114 billion every year. (Also read: Philippines investigates drug syndicate in Mindanao after 500 kilos drug haul in Laos)

The Philippine law enforcement authorities are currently tracking three active “micro” scam hubs operated by foreign and local nationals within the country, but no information was given on the number of similar types of operations happening in other ASEAN states.

“The new trend is that micro hubs have 10 to 15 to 20 [people] who stay in one house, Remulla said. “It’s not like before. Before, what we had was like 5,000 people in one building. Now they rent small houses.”

In October alone, law enforcement authorities raided three operations in Makati City, Quezon City, and in Zamboanga Sibugay. The Zamboanga raid was dubbed the largest bust with the arrest of 244 foreign nationals.

“[Tracking these scam hubs] is not as difficult as it seems, but it is also more complicated in their location,” Remulla said.

“We use tracking methods such as monitoring their electricity, consumption of broadband, movement of suspicious persons.”

In 2023, the Philippine government led a massive crackdown on Philippine Offshore Gaming Operators (POGO), mostly catering to Chinese nationals after it was revealed that these businesses also committed human trafficking and other illegal activities.

The following year, the government banned all operations under the Anti-POGO Act of 2025. (Also read: Unmasking Rodrigo Duterte and his Communist Chinese Connection)

“China did not particularly address [the scam hub] issue,” Remulla said, noting that China, along with South Korea and Japan took part in the ASEAN Plus Three ministerial meetings on Transnational Crime on Wednesday.

“They did mention though [that] transnational crime is a pressing issue [for them]. It is not a local problem, it is an international problem.”

Foreign Affairs Secretary Ma. Theresa Lazaro and China’s Ambassador to the Philippine Jing Quan held a discussion on Monday, October 19, over Jing’s inflammatory remarks over South China Sea tensions last Thursday. Photo by DFA-OPD

Anna Mogato | October 19, 2026

MANILA — The Philippines’ foreign ministry on Monday summoned China’s ambassador after he issued what could be described as “veiled threats” even as senators proposed to declare him as “persona non grata”.

President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has also considered Jing Quan’s statement to the media as a threat when asked to comment on the Chinese ambassador’s remarks.

In a statement, the Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) conveyed its strong objection to the ambassador’s remarks when he had seemingly alluded to China threatening to use force over the disputed waters in the South China Sea.

Foreign Secretary Maria Theresa Lazaro described Jing’s statements as “provocative and unacceptable, and does not contribute to creating understanding.”

“Such language aggravates an already sensitive bilateral atmosphere and undermines the shared efforts of both countries to build mutual understanding and cooperation.” the DFA statement said.

“It is not the place of a foreign mission to publicly criticize or taunt Philippine officials and legislators who are acting within their mandates. As a democracy, the Philippines values freedom of expression and a plurality of voices, and it will not accept attempts by a foreign envoy to intimidate those who exercise them.”

The foreign ministry also issued a warning to the Chinese ambassador.

“The department reserves the right to take further diplomatic action as it deems necessary,” it added.

At a university forum last week, Ambassador Jing said the Philippines should be thankful to have a neighbor such as China that could use force to settle disputes in the South China Sea, but never did because “[they] love peace.”

Secretary Lazaro has reminded the Chinese embassy not to publicly criticize or taunt Filipino legislators who called on the government to declare Jing persona non grata.

The DFA said that it remains committed to a candid dialogue and constructive engagement with China.

“It will keep open lines of communication with China and work to stabilize bilateral relations, especially in non-sensitive areas, while firmly upholding the country’s consistent positions on important issues,” the statement read.

At the Senate, Senator Erwin Tulfo, head of the powerful foreign relations committee, introduced a resolution, expressing serious concern over Jing’s remarks which suggested the potential use of force against the Philippines.

Tulfo’s resolution also urged the DFA to recommend to the appropriate authorities to declare Ambassador Jing Quan persona non grata.

Tulfo said he viewed the “severity of his remarks and their implications for Philippine sovereignty, national dignity, and bilateral relations.”

In response, the Chinese embassy said Filipino officials and legislators should stop threatening the ambassador and instead declare him an unwanted guest of the Republic.

A Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson said Beijing remained committed to improving relations with Manila, which it considered a “friend” and a “good neighbor”.

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. met with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on the sidelines of the 18th BRICS Summit in New Delhi last September 13. Official handout.

Manuel Mogato | October 19, 2026

India has emerged as the strongest power not only in South Asia but also in the world, emerging as the 4th military power behind the United States, Russia, and China.

Based to the Global Firepower Index, New Delhi’s rise was driven by its consistent defense spending rate, rapid military modernization, and a growing standing army.

India’s military has been focusing on advanced missile systems, nuclear capacities and an expanded naval footprint and power, which further reinforced its status as a global power.

For instance, its naval forces have extended their reach beyond the Strait of Malacca and into Southeast Asia’s disputed waters.

Three weeks ago, two Indian warships took part in naval drills in the Philippines together with a vessel in Singapore, displaying maritime power that made China take a second look at as a potential regional rival.

President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has visited New Delhi, held security and trade dialogue with Prime Minister Narendra Modi to explore deeper and broader defense cooperation.

Manila has acquired three batteries of India’s BrahMos coastal missile system for more than $300 million and was considering a second order, on top of an air defense missile system as well. (Also read: Vietnam seals $700 million Brahmos deal with India)

But Manila was also counting New Delhi to support its territorial claims over the South China Sea as India is also at odds with China over its borders in the Himalayas. (Also read: India, Philippines elevate ties to strategic partnership amid rising China tensions)

New Delhi’s recent interest in the region would certainly boost its alliance with the United States and other like-minded states, such as Australia and Japan.

Collectively, the four powers are known as the Quad partners, a counterbalance to a rising China, seen as a regional bully for harassing smaller and weaker Southeast Asian neighbors, such as Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam — all claimants in the South China Sea.

Despite India’s steady rise, most Western countries do not respect and recognize New Delhi’s military and economic power.

Although India gained independence after the Second World War, the British have not treated New Delhi as a co-equal within the Commonwealth, looking down on it as a former colony for three centuries.

Canada, another Commonwealth country, also has no high regard for India. Canadian leader Mark Carney has labelled New Delhi a “middle power”, overlooking India’s geopolitical weight.

The British also supported relentless Canadian attacks on India on the issue of Sikh separatism, blaming Indian officials behind the killings of Sikh leaders in Canada with the collusion of US intelligence officials.

Although US President Donald Trump considers India’s Modi a personal friend, Washington does not see New Delhi as a co-equal.

India is treated as a secondary power, much like Australia and Japan, with limited military capabilities. Canberra and Tokyo have small armed forces, with no nuclear-powered submarines. They have a secondary role and have seen limited combat experience since the Second World War.

Like Australia, Japan, and some Southeast Asian states, such as Indonesia, the Philippines, and Singapore, Washington wanted New Delhi to follow the US policy line, particularly its anti-China strategy.

The United States has been exerting pressure on India to stop military and technical cooperation with Russia, its main adversary, and refrain from importing fuel amid the Ukraine conflict, which Washington supports.

Thus, it will never share its advanced military and nuclear technologies with India, worried that a third country could gain or steal them.

Washington only needed New Delhi as an asymmetric tool to deter Beijing. The United States has been treating India the same way with Australia, Japan, and some ASEAN states.

There are real dangers that India’s national economic and security interests, as well as its foreign policy as a rising and independent power, would be affected if it follows the US’ dictates.

It should resist US pressures, hold its ground, and strengthen its position as an independent pole of power in the regional and international arena.

India is an emerging global power. It should not allow the West, particularly the United States, the United Kingdom, and even Canada, to take control of its destiny.

Southeast Asia is counting on India to fill the shoes left by the Americans as they focused on the Middle East and Eastern Europe.

India has earned its place in the world as an economic powerhouse and as an emerging military power. The West — the US and UK — must show respect too.

Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) personnel drove away Chinese fishing vessel and four deployed small boats in the sea near Lawak Island last October 15. Photo from PCG.

Manuel Mogato | October 17, 2026

In recent incidents around Bajo de Masinloc and other parts of the West Philippine Sea, China has displayed its firepower to harass the Philippines’ smaller and slower aircraft and vessels.

Faster and more lethal advanced Chinese J-16 fighters buzzed Philippine Air Force (PAF) surveillance turbo-prop aircraft on maritime domain awareness flights near Bajo de Masinloc.

Heavily-armed Chinese frigates also shadowed Philippine Coast Guard vessels not only in Bajo de Masinloc, but in Ayungin Shoal and in other Philippune-occupied features, particularly in Kota island.

In the past, China deployed armed militia vessels in a cabbage approach in the disputed waters to mask how powerful its forces in asserting its claims in almost the entire South China Sea.

It has also rammed weaker and smaller Vietnamese vessels in waters near the Southeast Asian state, sinking fishing boats and damaging maritime law enforcement vessels.

The Philippines thought China would not do the same to its public vessels because of the country’s Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT) with the United States.

But it was wrong. Chinese Coast Guard vessels have activated its water cannon numerous times and have deliberately rammed local maritime law enforcement and fisheries vessels.

And now the intimidation tactics escalated by sending frigaes and fighters. China is still holding its punches by avoiding direct confrontation or a direct attack.

How long can it hold the punches?

In 1988, China sank three Vietnamese vessels in a clash near Johnson and Fiery Cross Reefs, marking the start of Chinese occupation in the South China Sea.

Eventually, China took control of seven features and expanded them into artificial islands with ports and airfields to control the disputed areas.

Thus, it was no surprise that J-16 fighters instantly appeared alongside PAF planes flying over Bajo de Masinloc, as the Chinese planes may have come from either Subi or Mischief Reef, just a few minutes away.

The fighters’ presence was a display of air superiority, not only to intimidate the Philippines, but also to change tactics.

Perhaps the changes came as the Philippines upgraded air and naval assets from second-hand World War II platforms to modest missile-capable planes and ships.

The Philippines now has four guided-missile frigates and is acquiring upgraded FA-50 fighters byb 2028. It also acquired coastal missile defense and air defense systems.

Although the Philippines still cannot match China’s superior firepower, logistics, and stable supply chain, it has acquired minimum capabilities to defend its sovereignty and rights.

China’s escalating intimidation around Bajo de Masinloc and Ayungin Shoal should be a wake-up call for Filipino lawmakers to prioritize the long-overdue military modernization program.

The military needs several dozen multi-role fighters, batteries of coastal defense missiles, a few more surface combatant vessels, conventional sub-surface vessels, and thousands of independent drones to protect Philippine national interests.

It would make another country think twice before making an attack to take over Philippine territories. (Also read: Learning to fight future wars in Balikatan drills)

In late 2024, the military prepared a 2 trillion pesos plan to upgrade its equipment and defense systems, but Congress has not moved to fund them.

For instance, the House of Representatives passed a 7.2 trillion pesos budget for 2027, but realigned more than 200 billion pesos for infrastructure projects and financial aid programs designed to help politicians win elections in May 2029.

The lower house slashed funding for health and education programs and kept the defense sector at the barest minimum.

The 50 billion pesos allocation for the military modernization program is not enough to sign new contracts for ships and planes. It only allocated money to pay for loans made for equipment acquired under the Duterte administration. It means no new big ticket contracts.

Washington has urged its allies to raise defense sector spending to at least 3 percent of its GDP to boost deterrence capabilties in the face of rising threats from China and Russia.

Filipino administration and lawmakers, however, are stubborn. They refused to raise defense spending up to 2 percent of GDP, keeping it at a little over 1 percent.

The United States and Japan have been providing some military assistance, but the Philippines cannot complefely rely on a few pieces of American air defense and coastal missile equipment and second-hand Japanese fixed-wing and detroyer escorts to boost its defenses.

The Philippines’ neighbors have been upgrading their capabilities, like Indonesia, which acquired an Italian aircraft carrier, or Singapore, which ordered a few F-35 advanced fighter jets.

Boosting deterrence capabilities would help keep China beyond the Philippines’ maritime zones if Beijing realized Manila has more than enough equipment to push them out.

This would reduce China’s intimidation tactics, and the Philippines could earn some respect.

Anna Mogato | October 17, 2026

MANILA — The Philippines has launched an inter-agency investigation after authorities at a Laos airport seized at least a 521-kilogram synthetic drug shipment en route to Manila.

At a news conference, anti-corruption agency head Crispin Remulla said they have identified 11 persons of interest who might be linked to a Mindanao-based politician-led drug syndicate.

“It’s positively from the Golden Triangle; that’s where the drugs came from,” Remulla said, referring to the border areas of Cambodia, Laos, and war-torn Myanmar.

“We’re not labelling any ethnicity or city or people; we are putting a name to the face of who we suspect are behind this [drug shipment].”

Remulla said a regional autonomous politician from the Bangsamoro area, identified as Sultan Edrieza Nazzer Rimbang, was identified as a person of interest after he paid for the charter flight from Laos to the Philippines.

On October 1, Laotian authorities intercepted a large shipment of crystal methamphetamine, stored in 21 suitcases, on board a private Learjet 55B at Luang Prabang International Airport.

The charter jet, which came from Malaysia, was en route to the Philippines.

Remulla said that the plane had attempted to land in Manila in the last week of September.

Philippine authorities have been coordinating with Malaysian and Laotian counterparts to track the persons of interest, including consignees and financiers, involved in the drug shipment.

“That’s why we’re asking the Congress to pass a law to designate narco-traffickers and drug syndicates as terrorist organizations, so law enforcement agencies all over the world can cooperate with us,” Remulla said.

The shipment was the largest in recent months after customs authorities discovered a 6 billion pesos worth of drug shipment at the Port of Manila during former President Rodrigo Duterte’s time.

President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. summoned China’s Ambassador to the Philippines Jing Quan last July over the incident at Ayungin Shoal. Official handout.

Anna Mogato | October 17, 2026

MANILA — Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. said he would summon China’s Ambassador to the Philippines after he made “threat” remarks over the disputed South China Sea, describing it as undiplomatic.

Speaking to journalists during an event at the Philippine Coast Guard, Marcos said he would have a private discussion with Ambassador Jing Quan, asking him what he “exactly meant” with his statements.

Jing, in an event, told journalists that the Philippines should be grateful to have China as a neighbor in the region, despite tensions over contested waters in the South China Sea.
“If we want to use force, we may easily win,” Jing said. “But no, we will not use force [because] we love peace. And in this region, we enjoy the peace.”

The Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA), immediately reacted to the Chinese ambassador’s statement, expressing regrets for the ambassador’s poor choice of words that “seem to convey a thinly veiled threat of the use of force.”

“[This] is hardly helpful in the context of the complicated bilateral ties between the Philippines and China.,” the foreign ministry said in a statement. (Also read: Philippines still seeks diplomatic route over South China Sea conflict)

“It is hoped that all diplomats accredited to the Philippines take greater care in the language used in public statements so as not to further erode mutual trust and confidence, nor derail the advancement of dialogue and constructive engagement.”

Rear Admiral Jay Tarriela, the Philippine Coast Guard’s spokesman for the West Philippine Sea, also called the ambassador’s statement a threat.

“That is a direct threat, and wrapping it in “we love peace” does not change what it is,” Tarriela said.

“Let us call this what it is! A foreign ambassador, on Philippine soil, before Filipino journalists, telling Filipinos that his country “may easily win” if it chooses to use force against us. That is not reassurance.”

He said Filipino fishermen have been driven away from Bajo de Masinloc and PCG personnel bore the brunt of harassment from China Coast Guard vessels within the Philippine exclusive economic zone.

“No people feel fortunate when a larger neighbor repeatedly violates the law and then tells them to be thankful it was not worse,” Tarriela added.

On Friday, the Chinese Embassy in Manila released a reply, also calling DFA’s statement “regrettable.”

“This kind of selective quotation and overinterpretation demonstrates that there is still a long way to go in fostering effective communication and dialogue between China and the Philippines,” the statement read.

“China-Philippines relations are currently at an extremely sensitive stage. Certain individuals are actively seeking to undermine normal exchanges and cooperation between the two countries.”

The embassy said it urges the DFA to be more responsible in ensuring that relations between both countries are “not pushed into a dangerous and uncertain situation.”

Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jr met with top military officials on Tuesday, October 13, to discuss updates on priority initiatives concerning the Armed Forces of the Philippines’s enlisted personnel. Official handout.

Manuel Mogato | October 14, 2026

MANILA — The Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) has expressed full support for Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro after the Chinese embassy criticized him for suspending military-to-military communications between Manila and Beijing.

In a statement, the military backed the defense department’s directive to stop direct military contacts because the mechanisms produced no results, and instead, Chinese activities in the disputed waters increased.

Retired Rear Admiral Roy Vincent Trinidad, a military spokesman, said meaningful dialogue between the two neighbors would work if China’s actions were sincere. (Also read: Teodoro accuses China of “interference” in Philippine affairs)

“Bilateral dialogue will be effective if the messages match the actions on sea, air, and ground,” Trinidad said.

Trinidad said communication mechanisms between China and the Philippines must be grounded in mutual trust, sincerity and respect for international law.

But he accused the Chinese Communist Party of using direct communication channels as a “smokescreen” for its activities in the Philippines’ maritime domain.

Responding to the Chinese embassy’s criticism, Teodoro said he had suspended the military-to-military communication with China nearly three years ago because it failed to stop China’s illegal, coercive, aggressive, and dangerous (ICAD) activities within the Philippines’ maritime zone.

Chinese fighters and warships got involved around Bajo de Masinloc to intimidate the Philippine maritime law enforcement agency.

Beijing also ignored the Philippines’ diplomatic protests and blamed Secretary Teodoro for escalating tensions in the West Philippine Sea.

In a statement on Monday, the Chinese Embassy accused Teodoro of suspending military communications for “political self-interest.”

The embassy called for renewal of direct military contact between the two militaries and for communication channels to remain open to prevent miscalculations and reduce the risk of confrontation.

The embassy also warned that the suspension could deepen mistrust and undermine crisis management efforts.

Teodoro, however, described the embassy’s criticism as a “desperate move,” alleging that China was reacting after being exposed for what he called its foolishness.

Another military spokesman, Army Colonel Xerxes Trinidad, said the defense department suspended direct contact with China’s People’s Liberation Army due to heightened tension around Bajo de Masinloc and Ayungin Shoal.

“Upholding the Constitution and safeguarding our sovereign rights is a duty incumbent upon every Filipino. United as one nation, the Filipino people and the AFP will continue to defend our territorial integrity,” Trinidad said.

Trinidad said the military would continue its maritime patrols, aerial operations, surveillance activities, and rotation and resupply missions.

“The AFP will ensure that our flag remains flying high and proud over our maritime domain,” he added.

National Bureau of Investigation Director Atty. Melvin Matibag at a press conference on October 12 unveiled undeclared properties of Vice President Sara Duterte and her husband Atty. Manases Carpio. Screengrab from livestream.

Manuel Mogato | October 14, 2026

MANILA — President Rodrigo Duterte and his children acquired several properties while he was in power from 2016 to 2022, including those in his daughter’s misdeclared annual statements of assets, liabilities, and net worth (SALN).

The National Bureau of Investigation (NBI) said it has submitted its fact-finding report to the anti-corruption Ombudsman for filing of formal complaints.

NBI Director Melvin Matibag said the fact-finding report was based on discrepancies found in the vice president’s SALN for the years 2024 and 2025.

The report has identified at least 22 land titles for 14 properties in Davao and other parts of the country.

Matibag said the NBI zeroed in on a property in Davao City, allegedly belonging to Duterte and her brother, Davao City First District Rep. Paolo Duterte.

The property was declared an agricultural land valued at 890,000 pesos, but upon inspection, it was actually estimated at 50 to 60 million pesos.

“In Catigan, it’s agricultural land, listed in the vice president’s SALN as items 6 and 7. So, we took the title, and we looked at its location and its coordinates; this is what came out.” Matibag told journalists, showing a resort in Davao City.

The vice president, meanwhile, denied owning the property.

“This deception of the public is the reason why the NBI was removed from the list of witnesses to be presented by the prosecution in the impeachment proceedings—due to allegations that they once again presented questionable evidence like the Gracioso affidavit,” Duterte said in a statement.

However, Matibag stood by his report. “The evidence is clear,” he said.

Another independent source, who refused to be named, said the Dutertes had acquired more or less 50 properties from 2016 to 2022 when Duterte was president.

The source said the vice president and her husband had property in Palawan and other places, including Laoag in Ilocos Norte.

Senate President Sherwin Gatchalian and Presiding Officer Francis Escudero leading the Senate impeachment court. Photo by Joseph Vidal/Senate Social Media Unit

Anna Mogato | October 13, 2026

MANILA — After 38 days of presenting witnesses and evidence, the Senate impeachment court has agreed to drop three of the four articles of impeachment against Vice President Sara Duterte, speeding up the trial proceedings.

Lead prosecutor Representative Gerville Luistro on Tuesday manifested that the cases of grave threats, misuse of confidential funds, and bribery would be dropped, and will instead stand on the latest article presented: unexplained wealth of Duterte and her husband.

“We believe that evidence is substantial and compelling and warrants the respondent’s removal from office for culpable violation of the Constitution and betrayal of public trust,” she told the Senate impeachment court.

Luistro also said that they had come to the decision after “a careful study” of what would most benefit the impeachment court, the public, and even Duterte herself.

“Considering the equally important legislative functions that [the Senate needs] to face as well, this includes the regular bills pending before the Senate, and most importantly, the much anticipated General Appropriations Acts of 2027.”

Luistro also argued that the Defense panel was given the opportunity to participate through “their lengthy, extensive, engaging cross examination where they were able to present their documents as well to the public.”

“And if the desire of the defense is to be able to share all the pieces of evidence that they have, there are a lot of platforms they may consider, if the intention only is to share this [evidence] publicly.”

Only three of 10 witnesses were presented for the grave threats case, while 11 of the 27 named witnesses were presented for the confidential funds case.

The latest case, unexplained wealth, only heard 11 of the 15 named witnesses.

None of the five witnesses for the bribery case were presented as the prosecution earlier mentioned the case would be dropped, noting that the earlier presented articles of impeachment are strong enough to convict Duterte.

Attorney Sheila Sison, lead defense counsel, called the prosecution’s manifestation “unbelievable” and “unacceptable”.

“The prosecution would thus retain the benefit of having its evidence heard while the respondent would be at risk of being denied the benefit of having that evidence contradicted,” Sison said.

“We feel and believe that this is not fair and it is not keeping with the guarantees of due process because the right to be heard is not merely satisfied by allowing the respondent some room to present evidence on her behalf.”

Presiding Officer Senator-judge Francis Escudero accepted the prosecution’s manifestation to drop three articles of impeachment, relaxing the sub judice rule for these cases. This means that both prosecution and defense can speak on the merits of these withdrawn cases.

However, the documents and transcripts during the earlier articles of impeachment will still be available for senator judges for review.

Escudero also ruled that the articles of grave threats and confidential funds may not be revived during the duration of the trial proceedings, nor will these cases be filed again while the 20th Congress is in session.

The third case, bribery, is withdrawn without prejudice as it was not heard by the court.

The Senate impeachment court, which will start its break tomorrow, will resume hearings again on November 9 to hear the side of Duterte’s defense team.

Financial forensic expert, Lawyer Alexander Cabrera, testifying before the Senate impeachment court on Monday, October 12. Photo by Wendell Alinea/Senate Social Media Unit.

Manuel Mogato | October 13, 2026

MANILA — A financial forensic expert told the Senate impeachment court the Vice President Sara Duterte and her husband’s financial transactions showed “symptoms” of money laundering.

Taking the witness stand, Lawyer Alexander Cabrera, who had 37 years of experience in forensic accounting, said it was unusual for Duterte’s husband, Manases Carpio’s food company to receive millions of pesos in remittances from foreign companies only to disappear in the company’s bank accounts in a day or two.

‘It appears the money was only passing through,” Cabrera said, adding the company, Cale88, has a small paid up capital but was raking up sales that were never reported in annual financial report and in tax payments.

Moreover, the banana chips exporting company also has no raw materials inventory, no payables, no manpower, and lower power consumption.

“These are symptoms of money laundering operations,” he concluded after Cale88 got 319 million pesos remittances, converted from foreign currency from several China-based and Hong Kong companies, including state-owned firms.

President Ferdinand Marcos has raised the remittances as red flags, describing the vice president’s involvement in the illegal activities as a “national security threats”

Duterte defended herself, saying the accusations were politically-motivated because Marcos was preventing her from seeking the presidency in 2028.

Cabrera said the vice president has an undeclared 817.87 million pesos in her 2025 statement of assets, liabilities, and net worth (SALN) based on his analysis of Duterte’s tax, banks, insurance, and financial records, including reports from the Anti-Money Laundering Council (AMLC).

However, if the 612 million pesos in confidential and intelligence funds, which Duterte would not explain where the money went, would be included, the vice president’s unexplained wealth could shoot up to more than 1 billion pesos.

Duterte’s defense lawyers protested Cabrera’s report and described it as “erroneous”.

They will start presenting witnesses and documents next month when the trial resumed, giving way to the Senate’s deliberations of the 2027 budget.

Cabrera is the last prosecution witness, connecting dots after officials and records from banks and insurance were presented. Officials from the Bureau of Internal Revenue (BIR), Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), and AMLC also testified in the impeachment court.

Manuel Mogato | October 13, 2026

MANILA — The Philippines sent a Coast Guard aircraft and vessel to a disputed feature in the West Philippine Sea to challenge a Chinese vessel illegally conducting a research within the country’s maritime zone, a spokesman said.

Rear Admiral Jay Tarriela said the Coast Guard dispatched a maritime law enforcement vessel to Hubo Ree, about 115-120 nautical miles from Rizal town, Palawan, to challenge a Chinese research vessel, Tan Suo Yi Hao, which is operating without authorization from the foreign ministry.

The Department of Foreign Affairs has confirmed that no request for consent was received from China for any marine scientific research to be conducted by Tan Suo Yu Hai in the Philippine EEZ. (Also read: Philippine Coast Guard challenges Chinese research vessel near Batanes)

Tarriela said the Coast Guard “challenged and disrupted the Chinese illegal marine scientific research (MSR), constantly sending radio challenges.”

The Philippines was alerted by the presence of Tan Suo Yi Hao in its exclusive economic zone (EEZ) by the Canadians through their satellite-based Dark Vessel Detection (DVD) and AIS tracking.

It immediately sends a surveillance plane to locate the exact position of the research vessel. (Also read: Chinese vessel conducts one month research in Bajo de Masinloc)

Based on the Dark Vessel Detection (DVD), the Coast Guard said the Chinese vessel left a port in Sanya, Hainan on October 2, passing through the western side of the South China Sea, and entered the Philippines’ maritime zone on October 9.

On October 10, the Chinese vessel was lying-to approximately 12 nautical miles northwest of Katimugan Bank, and declared through its AIS that it was engaged in diving operations with restricted maneuverability, while directing other vessels to keep two nautical miles clear.

It also declared an estimated time of arrival of 17 October 2026, indicating its intent to remain in the area for at least another week, Tarriela said.

But the Chinese vessel suddenly disappeared from the Coast Guard’s monitoring when the research vessel’s AIS went silent.

Tarriela said Tan Suo Yi Hao is operated by the Institute of Deep-sea Science and Engineering of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, based in Sanya.

It serves as a mothership for China’s deep-sea manned submersibles, including the Fendouzhe, and is equipped with deep-sea winches, sounding systems, and sediment collection devices for seabed investigation.

He said the Chinese research vessel was the first to openly declare diving operations inside the Philippine EEZ, and the one operating farthest into the southern portion of the West Philippine Sea.

The aircrew found the Chinese vessel approximately five nautical miles west-northwest of Hubo Reef, slowly navigating eastward.

Tarriela said it had not deployed submersibles, equipment, or lines in the water at the time of the overflight.

The aircraft issued multiple radio challenges to the Chinese research vessel, but all of which went unanswered, Tarriela added.

During the same flight, the aircraft also monitored China Coast Guard vessel CCG 5306 approximately 6.8 nautical miles south of Hubo Reef, and another China Coast Guard vessel approximately 12.7 nautical miles southwest of Hubo Reef.

Two People’s Liberation Army Navy vessels were likewise monitored in the surrounding waters, one approximately 22.8 nautical miles northeast of Escoda Shoal and the other approximately 11.3 nautical miles south-southeast of Katimugan

Coast Guard commander, Admiral Ronnie Gavan ordered the deployment of several vessels to directly challenge Tan Suo Yi Hao and disrupt its illegal activities within the Philippine EEZ.

The presence of a research vessel was the second time the Philippines monitored this month after driving another vessel in Batanes.

Manuel Mogato | October 13, 2026

THE HAGUE — The International Criminal Court (ICC) has ruled that former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte is fit to stand trial next month, rejecting his defense lawyers’ motions to set aside the trial.

In the decision, Chamber III also adopted measures to facilitate Duterte’s participation in the trial. The ICC said Duterte will exercise his rights in the legal proceedings.

The judges’ decision is based on the findings of an independent panel of experts as well as on submissions made by the parties and participants on these issues.

The expert panel unanimously found that Duterte has the capacity to understand the charges, the purpose and consequences of the proceedings, follow the course of the proceedings, including the nature and implications of entering a plea, understand the evidence, and instruct counsel in the preparation and conduct of his defense.

The court said the former Filipino leader’s health will be monitored during the trial.

If the court-appointed medical officer identifies any changes in Duterte’s medical condition, it should be transmitted to the court.

Duterte was arrested in March 2025 on charges of crimes against humanity in connection with widespread killings in the Philippines due to the government’s war on drugs policy.

Duterte appeared before the ICC Trial Chamber on 14 March 2025. On 24 April 2026, the ICC Presidency constituted Trial Chamber III to be in charge of the Duterte case.

Trial Chamber III scheduled the opening of the trial for 30 November 2026.

A screengrab of Vice President Sara Duterte’s video statement on her Facebook page on Monday, October 12, to address her ongoing impeachment case and ties to China.

Anna Mogato | October 12, 2026

MANILA — Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. said his vice president could pose a “national security issue” after she and her husband received millions of pesos from Chinese state-controlled companies.

At a press conference in Singapore, Marcos raised concern over Duterte’s alleged Chinese ties, which were revealed during her ongoing impeachment hearing at the Senate.

“What’s most disturbing about it is the Chinese money,” Marcos said. “That now rises to a national security issue, if it’s true. That’s why the Department of National Defense responded, and they said they have to look into this.”

He further said: “Nothing would make me happier than proof that it is not true; then there is one less thing I have to worry about. But if it is true, it is a threat at the highest level to the republic.”

In last week’s Senate impeachment proceedings, Anti-Money Laundering Council (AMLC) Executive Director Ronel Bautista revealed that the vice president’s husband, Manases Carpio, had received 319 million pesos through Cale88, a banana chip manufacturing and exporting company.

Last week, the National Security Council said it would look into reports that Cale88 received money from China-based companies and the national security implications of these remittances.

“If it’s not true [that Duterte received Chinese money], then good! There’s no problem. But if it is, then we have a problem,” Marcos said.

“So the first step in dealing with this whole situation, these allegations being thrown [at Duterte] is to find the evidence and see what the truth is.”

Duterte, at her own press conference also on Monday, hit back at Marcos for considering her a threat since 2023, when the Duterte-Marcos tandem had a falling out.

“It’s worrisome that this statement would come from [Marcos] because he already said since 2023 that they consider me a threat. Secondly, his statements are also worrisome because it’s like he’s saying that conducting business with China is also a threat to the country,” Duterte said.

“So what is it? Is it really not allowed to conduct business with China because it’s a national security risk?”

National Assembly approves Saleumxay Kommasith as Prime Minister of the Lao PDR. (Source: Lao News Agency, October 5, 2026)

Kaikham Lattanavong | October 12, 2026

VIENTIANE — Laos’ 10th National Assembly has appointed Saleumxay Kommasith as the new prime minister, replacing Sonexay Siphandone, who was appointed president of the National Assembly after Saysomphone Phomvihane’s sudden death in August.

Although Saleumxay has limited experience in economic affairs, he is widely recognised for his diplomatic expertise. However, the change in positions was not directly related to Sonexay’s performance or Saleumxay’s abilities. Rather, it followed the Politburo’s seniority order.

The Politburo is the party’s highest-level leadership body, responsible for setting the country’s direction and making key decisions across various sectors. The current body has 13 members, elected at the 12th National Congress of the Lao People’s Revolutionary Party on January 8, 2026.

“People have been saying for a long time that he should be given an important position because of his high educational qualifications,” said Assistant Professor Dr. Thanachate Wisaijorn, head of the Department of Politics and International Relations at the Faculty of Political Science, Ubon Ratchathani University, commenting on speculation about Saleumxay’s appointment as prime minister.

“If he takes the position, he could play a positive role and bring greater diplomatic experience.”

After Saysomphone’s death, the leadership was reshuffled. Five other key positions in the government, party, and economic and financial agencies also changed.

Thanachate said of Sonexay: “He has not fallen out of the circle of power. Instead, he moved up to become president of the National Assembly and remained on the Party Central Committee’s Politburo. His relatives continue to hold prominent roles at the national level.”

Thus, the leadership reshuffle in Laos was a reallocation of positions based on the Politburo’s seniority and the power structure.

Heirs to the Revolution

Although some observers may view the leadership change as a possible reduction in the Siphandone family’s political influence, Sonexay’s new position as president of the National Assembly is considered equivalent in status to that of prime minister. Both positions are among the country’s three highest pillars of political power.

Sonexay Siphandone is the son of Khamtai Siphandone, Laos’ former prime minister and president.

Saleumxay Kommasith is the son of Brigadier General Thonglai Kommasith, a senior military officer who played a role in the revolutionary movement and was close to former President Choummaly Sayasone.

Saleumxay is also a close associate and political protégé of Thongloun Sisoulith. The two politicians built their careers in foreign affairs before advancing to top leadership positions.

In addition, Saleumxay’s younger brother, Malaithong Kommasith, is married to Khamtai Siphandone’s daughter. Khamtai was a former president and Sonexay’s father.. The two families are therefore connected through marriage.

Laos’ political landscape reflects the continued influence of family ties and the families of revolutionary leaders in the country’s national power structure.

Vietnam-China Relations

Beyond maintaining the balance of power, Saleumxay also faces geopolitical challenges, particularly in balancing relations with Vietnam, a close ally, and China, which plays a significant role in investment and infrastructure development in Laos.

Although Saleumxay has close ties with Vietnam, China’s involvement in Baan Kern Airport could raise security concerns for Vietnam amid its disputes with China in the South China Sea.

“Laos is trying to maintain neutrality, even though it is clear that Vietnam and China have disagreements over the South China Sea,” Thanachate said.

Baan Kern Airport in Laos is a military cooperation project between China and Laos. It is located near Vientiane, the capital, and about 40 kilometres from the Thai border.

Vietnam views China’s military moves as potentially affecting its national security.

Manuel Mogato | October 12, 2026

MANILA — Islamist gunmen killed a soldier and wounded eight others, including two civilians, in an ambush in Lamitan City, the second incident this week involving the same Army unit.

An Army spokesman said troops from the 45th Infantry Battalion were on the way back to a headquarters in Ungkaya Pukan town when they were fired upon around 6 pm on Thursday. (Also read: Gunmen ambush soldiers in Basilan, 11 wounded)

“The soldiers were at a local port to fetch new soldiers arriving in Basilan,” the spokesman said.

“Seven soldiers were initially wounded, but one of them died at a hospital in Zamboanga City on Friday morning.”

A father and his 10-year-old son were also injured after being caught in the crossfire.

On October 5, gunmen also ambushed the members of the 45th Infantry Battalion in Tipo-Tipo town, also in Basilan, that left 11 troops injured.

The October 5 ambush was attributed to a group engaged in the trade of illegal drugs in the province. The group is said to be led by one Saddam Siddick.

Siddick and his men reportedly perpetrated the October 5 ambush to avenge the death of his wife, who died in a law enforcement operation in Lamitan City last September 29.

Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jr. said the two attacks will not affect the peace process with former Muslim rebels, the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF).

Teodoro has ordered the arrest of Siddick, describing the attacks as “narco-terrorism”.

Manuel Mogato | October 12, 2026

MANILA — The European Union has donated more than 1 billion pesos in security assistance to the Philippines, the first assistance package to Asia, to boost maritime domain awareness and cybersecurity.

Benedikta von Seherr-Thoss, the European Union’s managing director for peace, security and defense, announced the security assistance during the second EU-Philippines security and defense dialogue in Manila.

In a statement, the EU said 15 million euros in security assistance to the Philippines “demonstrates the EU’s strong commitment to promoting stability and security in the region.”

During the same dialogue, the two sides “reaffirmed their shared commitment to enhancing alignment on multilateral fora to uphold the rules-based international order.”

“The two sides engaged in substantive discussions on regional security dynamics, with a particular focus on maritime security, including critical maritime infrastructure and freedom of navigation, emphasising the importance of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS)” the EU statement read.

The two sides also discussed cybersecurity, hybrid threats, counterterrorism, and foreign information manipulation without mentioning China.

The EU-Philippines security dialogue began in June 2025 after EU High Representative Kaja Kallas’ high-level visit to Manila. The two sides first met in Brussels.

Photo from Kishore Mahbubani’s website.

Rommel C. Banlaoi | October 12, 2026

Speaking before a packed audience at Ateneo de Manila University on October 2, 2026, Kishore Mahbubani delivered a message that deserves attention far beyond the university campus. As Philippine security policy becomes increasingly shaped by the strategic rivalry between the United States and China, Manila should listen carefully to his call for strategic autonomy, geopolitical realism, and independent statecraft.

Throughout his diplomatic and academic career, Mahbubani has advanced a consistent proposition that small and medium-sized states preserve their sovereignty not by becoming instruments of great powers but by maintaining the widest possible room for independent action. For ASEAN members, this means resisting pressure to choose sides and ensuring that national interests remain the principal guide of policy.

This message is especially relevant today because the world is undergoing what Mahbubani calls as a historic great-power transition. The post-Cold War era of overwhelming American primacy is giving way to a more contested international order marked by China’s rise and the relative diffusion of power. Such transitions have historically been periods of instability, uncertainty, and strategic danger. The intensifying China-US rivalry is not merely a competition between two states. It is a struggle over the future balance of power in the international system.

For countries like the Philippines, these are dangerous times Mahbubani argues. The greatest risk is not simply external pressure from competing powers. It is the erosion of strategic autonomy. When a country’s options become overly dependent on the preferences of larger states, its freedom of action narrows and its vulnerability increases.

The Philippines faces legitimate security concerns. Chinese activities in the South China Sea continue to challenge Philippine maritime interests. The Armed Forces of the Philippines must continue military modernization, and the alliance with the United States remains an important pillar of national defense.

Yet national security cannot be reduced to military cooperation alone. Security also requires diplomacy, economic resilience, political cohesion, and strategic flexibility. This is precisely where Mahbubani’s message deserves attention.

For decades, ASEAN has sought to engage all major powers while avoiding excessive dependence on any one of them. This approach has helped preserve regional stability and provided Southeast Asian states with valuable diplomatic space. It has not eliminated disputes, but it has prevented the region from becoming permanently divided into opposing camps. (Also read: Building Bridges Not Walls: The Philippines and the Future of Maritime Order in the Asia-Pacific)

Mahbubani argues that this remains the wisest course. Avoiding sides does not mean abandoning principles. It means preserving flexibility. It means ensuring that policy decisions are driven primarily by national interests rather than the strategic agendas of others.

For Manila, this argument should resonate. Military preparedness and deterrence are essential. But diplomacy and defense are complementary instruments of statecraft, not competing alternatives.

Listening to Mahbubani does not mean weakening the alliance with the United States. Nor does it mean accommodating actions that undermine Philippine interests. It means recognizing a fundamental reality: alliances are instruments of policy, not substitutes for policy.

Mahbubani also cautions against placing excessive confidence in international law as a sufficient guarantee of security. The Philippines should continue to defend the 2016 Arbitral Award and uphold a rules-based international order. International law remains a valuable source of legitimacy and diplomatic leverage.

At the same time, history reminds us that major powers often apply international law selectively. States invoke legal principles when those principles align with their interests and interpret them differently when they do not. Thus, Mahbubani contends that law alone is rarely enough. Diplomatic influence, economic resilience, military capability, and political will remain critical components of national power.

This is not an argument against international law. It is an argument against strategic complacency. His broader point is that power remains a defining feature of international relations. Nations speak the language of principles and norms, but they also pursue interests. Effective statecraft requires a clear understanding of both realities. Countries that rely exclusively on legal and moral arguments while neglecting the realities of power risk finding themselves strategically exposed.

The challenge facing the Philippines is not whether it will be affected by the China-US strategic contest. Geography ensures that it will. Located at the center of one of the world’s most consequential maritime regions, the Philippines sits on the frontlines of a major geopolitical transformation.

History offers a cautionary lesson. During periods of great-power transition, smaller states have often borne the highest costs. Across regions and eras, rivalries among major powers have frequently evolved into proxy conflicts in which weaker states became battlegrounds for contests not entirely of their own making. The circumstances vary, but the pattern is familiar.

The lesson is not to abandon alliances but to ensure that national interests never become subordinate to the objectives of external actors. Strategic partnerships should enhance sovereignty, not diminish it. They should expand policy options, not narrow them.

This is why Mahbubani deserves a hearing in Manila. The Philippines should strengthen its defenses, deepen its diplomacy, protect its maritime rights, and maintain productive alliances. But it should also preserve its capacity for independent judgment.

The challenge extends beyond military modernization. It is to ensure that the Philippines remains sovereign not only in territory but also in strategic decision-making. Military strength matters. Alliances matter. But the ultimate objective is national autonomy.

Mahbubani offers no ready-made solutions. What he offers is something more valuable: a reminder that even amid an intensifying China-US great-power contest, smaller states still possess independence. They are not condemned to become pawns or proxies in a geopolitical struggle between a rising power and an established power. They retain choices and can pursue their own interests.

Mahbubani warns that countries that lose the ability to think independently eventually lose the ability to act independently. In an era defined by great-power transition and dangerous strategic competition between China and the United States, Manila would do well to listen.

Rommel C. Banlaoi, PhD, is Director of PhilippinesChina Studies Center at Diliman College and President of the Philippine Society for International Security Studies. He also served as President of the Philippine Association for Chinese Studies.

Financial forensic expert, lawyer Alexander Cabrera, testified before the Senate impeachment court on Friday, October 9. Screengrab from livestream.

Manuel Mogato | October 10, 2026

MANILA —Vice President Sara Duterte and her lawyer husband hid more than 800 million pesos in cash and other assets in her annual statements of assets, liabilities, and net worth (SALN), a financial expert witness told the Senate impeachment court.

Lawyer Alexander Cabrera prepared several matrices to show how Duterte and Manases Carpio underdeclared their personal wealth from 2007 to 2025. (Also read: Vice President and her husband have 190 million pesos cumulative deposits in eight banks)

Cabrera concluded the vice president violated the 1987 Constitution every time she misdeclared her wealth in her SALN since becoming vice president in 2022.

Prosecutors said it was an impeachable offense and the Senate Court must find her guilty, remove her from office, and prohibit her from seeking any public office.

Based on Cabrera’s tabulation, Duterte had accumulated 817.87 million in assets from 2022 to 2025, which she did not declare on her SALN.

Congressman and public prosecutor Chel Diokno presented Cabrera, a certified public accountant and a lawyer, as an expert witness to tie together testimonies from the BIR, banks, and insurance companies.

Earlier in the day, an official from the internal revenue agency told the court that Duterte got a salary from the Davao City government in 2023 when she was already vice president. (Also read: Anti-Money Laundering Council flags Vice President’s bank transactions)

The vice president was also getting paid for practicing her legal profession, another violation ot the Constitution.