Cards stacked vs China
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By: Rodney Jaleco | Published: December 21, 2024
Reading Time: 4 minutes
WASHINGTON D.C. – In about four weeks, social media powerhouse TikTok will disappear in the United States unless its Chinese owners find an American buyer or they get a last-minute reprieve from the Supreme Court, notwithstanding the mandated sale is the will of Congress.
Either way, it offers a glimpse of the rough road ahead for China’s Communists.
President-elect Donald Trump has packed his security and economic teams with people known for antagonizing China.
From incoming Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who is still under China’s sanction, to US Trade Representative nominee Jamieson Greer, who worked as chief of staff for the architect of Mr. Trump’s China tariff war during his first term.
Rep. Mike Waltz, the first Green Beret veteran to win a seat in the US House of Representatives, chairs the House Armed Services Subcommittee on Readiness and is one of 15 Republicans on the House China Task Force which worked, among others, to boost US critical mineral research and reduce reliance on Chinese rare metals.
He’s already begun talking with Pres. Biden’s outgoing national security team, suggesting at least some continuity moving forward.
Derek Grossman, a senior defense analyst at the think-tank RAND, predicted that the Philippines and Vietnam will be major Southeast Asian beneficiaries under a hawkish Trump administration.
“These two countries are bearing the brunt of China’s expansive nine-dash line claims…They are also at the forefront of challenging these claims,” Grossman noted.
He pointed out that during Mr. Trump’s first go-around at the White House, the pro-China Rodrigo Duterte was sitting in Malacanang; but the current Pres. Ferdinand Marcos Jr. is decidedly more steadfast against China’s bullying and is actively pursuing expanded ties with Western allies, particularly treaty ally United States.
Beyond getting into Pres. Trump’s good graces, Manila will be looking to sympathizers within the Trump team to push its security imperatives.
After all, the US military is committed to a long-term strategy to stop China along the Japan-Taiwan-Philippine axis.
“Without US support, the Philippines would be mostly left to fend for itself against growing Chinese encroachments in its exclusive economic zone in the South China Sea,” Grossman wrote.
This is why the Philippine Senate ratification of a “reciprocal access agreement” with Japan was deemed a major achievement, although it still needs to be affirmed by the Japanese Diet. It will allow Japan to deploy its military in the Philippines (and vice-versa), ostensibly for joint training but for all practical purposes, to boost the defense of the Philippines.
Japan is already the biggest defense donor, next only to the US. Many of the Philippine Coast Guards that have confronted the Chinese in the West Philippine Sea came from Japan, and they’ve committed to five additional multi-role response vessels (MRRVs) between 2027 and 2028.
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As in the first Trump term, what policies eventually emerge largely depends on the people around him, or speaks to him last.
There are mixed views on how he would deal with China or Pres. Xi Jinping. Billionaire Elon Musk – with his vast commercial interests in China – may have a mitigating influence on the China hawks. Much of what happens will also be dictated by how individual leaders and personalities react to Pres. Trump’s eccentricities and 3 AM social media posts. Still, the TikTok saga underlines the strong anti-China undercurrents in Washington. The cards are simply stacked against Beijing.
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