Coup jitters not only a headache for Marcos Jr. but also for US, allies
By: Rodney Jaleco | Published: November 19, 2025
Reading Time: 5 minutes
WASHINGTON D.C. — A junta in Manila will throw America’s military strategy in turmoil throughout the Indo-Pacific region, underlining the stakes in the country’s swirling corruption scandal even as threats of another mutiny have allies worried.
Defense Sec. Gilberto Teodoro Jr. acknowledged coup rumors, coinciding with a planned massive protest on Nov. 30, after Gen. Romeo Brawner Jr., head of the 160,000-man Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) revealed that at least two retired generals tried to convince him to withdraw support for Pres. Ferdinand Marcos Jr.
The retired generals – identified with former Pres. Rodrigo Duterte, who’s waiting trial at the International Criminal Court in The Netherlands – reportedly planned to form a junta to replace the elected Marcos Jr. And while Gen. Brawner confirmed the overture, he left to the Philippine National Police (PNP) possible criminal action against the alleged conspirators.
Mr. Teodoro warned the Philippines would face numerous sanctions if it took an “extraconstitutional path” and could pave the way to a military government. He said foreign governments could seize government deposits and block remittances of Filipino workers in their respective countries. (Also read: A template for regime change)
Worse, the defense chief said, a military take over of government would play directly to China’s hand. The Philippines is at the forefront of a hybrid war with China in the South China Sea where coast guard, maritime militia and in some instances, “grey-hull” naval forces have clashed especially in the Philippine exclusive economic zone. (Podcast: Corruption’s impact on Philippine defense)
A military takeover in the Philippines will throw the United States in a strategic bind. Section 7008 of the 2023 Consolidated Appropriations Act automatically cuts off US foreign assistance to any country where a coup d’etat deposed a democratically elected leader.
Between 2024 and 2025, the US committed $700 million in military assistance, including $500 million to modernize the Philippine military and coast guard in response to China’s Illegal, Coercive, Aggressive and Deceptive (ICAD) campaign against the Philippines. The US is stepping up joint training exercises, signed a deal to share intelligence about threats in the West Philippine Sea and upgrading facilities at joint-use military bases under the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA).
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The European Union has imposed targeted sanctions against Myanmar and Sudan, including freezing assets, banning arms sales and transfers, halting joint training exchanges and blocking investments, after the military took over there.
It could also cast a cloud on the visiting or reciprocal forces agreements with Japan, Australia and other countries that have formed a de-facto coalition against China. The Philippines is seen as the weakest link in a Pacific chain stretching from Alaska through Japan to Australia that aim to contain Chinese military expansion.
The Philippines has suffered through four failed coups d’etat from 1986 to 1989, and five other uprisings from 2001 to 2003 including a withdrawal of military support that led to the of Pres. Joseph Estrada in January 2001. (Also read: Having a Dysfunctional Government is a Nation’s Worst Trouble)
Uncertainty has apparently been fueled by a well-oiled influence operation, especially on social media. A Reuters report recently revealed the Chinese-owned Manila-based InfinitUs Marketing Solutions cyber campaign designed to sow discord over the country’s security alliance with the US. The Reuters report said the firm used fake profiles to amplify anti-American content created by Filipino writers, including some allegedly in Beijing’s payroll.
Fear of another coup attempt has led to lowering Philippine growth forecasts for the rest of 2025 from 5.8 to 5.5 percent. Business leaders estimate it could imperil up to $150 billion in US investments even as the Treasury Department sanctioned Manila-based Funnull Technology for alleged involvement in cybercriminal networks, signaling Washington’s readiness to help the government anti-corruption crackdown.
There appears little doubt of the nexus between fanning coup rumors and efforts by his family and supporters to rescue ex-Pres. Duterte, pursuing a line that hews closely to Chinese disinformation. Davao Rep. Paolo Duterte, one of the former president’s sons, criticized Gen. Brawner’s leadership by questioning the AFP strategy against China.
The objective is clearly to shape the environment to make it vulnerable to a power grab, place the pro-China Dutertes back in power and reverse the trajectory of a corruption crackdown that looks increasingly veering towards the Duterte family, cronies and political cohorts. It’s enough to make the US and the rest of the West nervous.
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