How long will Iran hold the world hostage in the Strait of Hormuz?
How long will Iran hold the world hostage in the Strait of Hormuz? Everyone is paying the price now, both Iran’s allies and adversaries, Manuel Mogato writes.
Manuel Mogato | March 30, 2026
MANILA — Fuel prices may still rise, and supply will be tighter as Iran continues to hold the world hostage by restricting vessel movements in the narrow Strait of Hormuz.
About a fifth of global oil and natural gas shipments, or roughly 20 million barrels, pass through the 35-mile to 60-mile-wide passage, making it the most vital energy resources chokepoint in the global economy.
Since early March, vessel traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has dropped by 97 percent, allowing only a few general cargo vessels and fuel tankers to pass through.
A Filipino-manned vessel was able to pass through after requesting permission from Iran to allow the cargo ship to exit the Persian Gulf into the Gulf of Oman and eventually to the Arabian Sea, asking for a safe passage from Tehran, as it was carrying Iranian cargoes.
Three Chinese-flagged vessels were turned back before reaching Larak Island, a virtual Iranian toll booth in the narrow passage.
Iran had struck with armed drones and missiles at other foreign-flagged vessels, particularly those operated by the United States and its allies in the Persian Gulf.
The United States had destroyed the Iranian Navy in the conflict, but international shipping remained at risk. (Also read: US insists the destruction of Iran’s nuclear facilities)
Tehran possesses missiles and armed drones, which can target larger commercial vessels.
It also has smaller but more agile and faster attack crafts, mini-submarines, and naval mines, which make navigation unsafe for large tankers and general cargo vessels.
Global crude oil prices have risen beyond $100 per barrel, and supplies are running out in Asia, a primary market for the Middle East energy producers, as the conflict entered its fifth week, and there was no end in sight. (Also read: ASEAN calls for cessation of hostilities in the Middle East)
If the conflict continues for a few more weeks, and maybe, even a month, food security will be threatened by a global fertilizers shock as more than 30 per cent of global fertilizer supply, including sulphur and ammonia, the key ingredients, passes through Hormuz.
An extended conflict could raise serious concerns about a global economic crisis, as experienced in the early 1970s during another Middle East conflict.
The United States and the United Arab Emirates had called on Western and other nations to join the “Hormuz Security Force” by sending warships to escort commercial vessels, reopen, and defend the region’s vital chokepoint.
Oil and gas tankers pass through a narrow route, mostly in Iranian territorial waters in the north of Hormuz and in Omani territorial waters in the south.
A quick look shows that Iran cannot possibly disrupt international shipping traffic because vessels pass through deeper waters near the United Arab Emirates and Oman.
But Iran’s asymmetrical warfare capability in March 2026 demonstrated its ability to close the traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.
In the past, Western nations, Japan, and China had come together to protect international shipping off the Somali coast from pirates, but Iran has more capability than non-state actors.
However, the international community can invoke the United Nations’ freedom of navigation concept, forcing Iran to abide by international rules, and allow oil and natural gas tankers and general cargo vessels to have safe passage in the Strait of Hormuz.
This is the same principle that governed the disputed waters in the South China Sea, where more than $3 trillion of seaborne goods pass every year.
China should not disrupt international shipping and domestic fishing activities in Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam.
It should respect freedom of navigation and the 2016 arbitral ruling that nullified China’s nine-dash-line claims on the South China Sea.
Like-minded countries around the world have joined the Philippines in year-round maritime drills and cooperative activity, challenging China’s illegal claims in the disputed waters.
Thus, whether in the South China Sea or in the Middle East, European powers, Australia, Canada, China, Japan, India and the United States can send their warships, particularly destroyers capable of intercepting ballistic missiles, to escort tankers and other vessels in the Persian Gulf into Omani waters and beyond.
Even Iran’s allies are hurting. China, which depended on energy resources from the Middle East, have started feeling the impact of the global oil shock.
There is tremendous pressure on Iran to allow oil and gas tankers and other vessels carrying other goods, including critical minerals, fertilizers, and other agricultural products, to pass unimpeded in the Strait of Hormuz.
How long will Iran hold the world hostage in the Strait of Hormuz? Everyone is paying the price now, both Iran’s allies and adversaries.
Whether the conflict drags on for more weeks, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is very important for the global economy’s lifeblood.
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