Storm signals: Instability scars the first Bangsamoro parliamentary election
By: Climate Conflict Action | Published: September 10, 2025
Reading Time: 4 minutes
While the country’s spotlight is fixed on the congressional hearings into corruption in Manila, a crisis is unfolding in Mindanao—one that could cost lives, unravel a fragile peace, and destabilize the nation.
Twin storms are now brewing in the Bangsamoro. The first is the widening split within factions of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), a division that risks spilling over into armed conflict as political rivalries intensify ahead of the October parliamentary elections. The second is the quiet but steady resurgence of violent extremism, with new recruitment among the youth in Lanao del Sur and Lanao del Norte, and a disturbing reemergence of extremist cells in Basilan.
These are not isolated incidents. Taken together, they are warning signs of a region on the brink of renewed instability. From our monitoring, the following red flags are already visible:
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A growing demand for illicit firearms and ammunition, suggesting preparations for armed confrontation.
Credible reports of extremist recruitment inside schools, madrasahs, and local networks targeting vulnerable youth in Munai, Tangkal, and Salvador in Lanao del Norte, as well as Lumbayanague and Marantao in Lanao del Sur.
Recent attacks on law enforcement by Dawlah Islamiya in the island province of Basilan.
Heightened tensions in ancestral domain areas of Non-Moro Indigenous Peoples (NMIPs), where MILF forces remain present, increasing the risk of clashes and displacement.
We cannot turn a blind eye. The stakes in Mindanao are no less urgent. If left unchecked, these tensions could spiral into violence, trigger mass displacement, and undo years of investment in peace.
We urge calm and sobriety among all stakeholders, but also call for decisive preventive action now:
Enforce the election gun ban and suspend the COMELEC’s discretionary power to exempt any individual from the ban. All weapons before, during, and after election day should solely be held by law enforcement officers.
Prohibit conflict prevention mechanisms such as CCCH and AHJAG from intervening in cases of gun ban violations. Appropriate sanctions should be imposed regardless of affiliation.
Closely monitor conflict flashpoints and signs of polarization to prevent escalation. Support and collaborate with independent monitoring bodies and set up trusted hotlines so that citizens have reliable channels to report incidents and receive timely responses.
Establish sanctuaries for personalities who are at high-risk of assassinations, especially NMIPs.
Prepare robust humanitarian response systems to address displacement—ensuring food, water, health services, emergency shelters, and continuity of education for affected children.
The Bangsamoro’s fragile transition cannot withstand neglect. The quiet buildup of arms, extremist networks, and unresolved grievances in Mindanao threatens to ignite a far greater crisis. The nation must pay attention and act before it is too late.
Finally, there is a positive move to demand greater transparency and accountability for public officials, exposed by recent controversies on flood control. While this is a welcome development, we must prevent the weaponization of good governance processes and measures themselves from becoming targeted attacks that serve political agendas rather than the greater good.
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