National Security and the Vulnerabilities of Democratic Elections
2028 will be a crucial year for both the Philippines and US, as both countries are set to have national elections with questionable candidates in the lead, security expert Ret. Col. Dencio Acop writes
COL Dencio S Acop (Ret), PhD, CPP | February 28, 2026
PERTH, Australia — While the recent RP-US Bilateral Strategic and Maritime Dialogues promise the most robust collaboration towards advancing the national security interests of both countries, upcoming national elections put the fruits of this collaboration at risk. Reelection for the highest political office will be up for grabs in these two countries in 2028. The initiatives agreed upon from the dialogues therefore, may either be sustained or not by the incoming leaders.
The credibility of elections is also in question nowadays. Credible evidence exists that puts into question the results of the national elections in the Philippines in 2022. When Hillary Clinton ran against Donald Trump, there was also evidence that the Russians interfered to favor the candidate of their choice in that election year of 2016 in the United States. These realities today paint a disturbing picture where once proven theories about governance models are being ably undermined by forces for elitist or nefarious interests away from the common good.
It sounds like a cliché but then again, the human condition has always been characterized by the ups and downs in man’s struggle for his common good. While the masses are treated like cattle by the elites in many societies, these masses have struggled the most to protect their rights as human beings when needed. The domestic, and now too — universal elites — seem to be greediest than altruistic. And this lies at the heart of political power grabs. People, that have become elite due to their political power, want more not because they just love serving their brethren but to preserve themselves from litigation – in short, selfish motives.
There was a time when the liberal democratic theory seemed the optimal governance model. That time was when nations oppressed by slavery rose up to become independent of their masters. The bottom-up governance model therefore became most popular in the world, championed by the superpower which practiced it successfully. But that time is past and now it seems alternative truth-based ideologies giving rise once more to authoritarianism are on the rise. Such is the vulnerability of democracies which inherently elect leaders every so often. The impact of this vulnerability will become apparent soon in the Indo-Pacific region as well as in the United States.
In the Indo-Pacific, 2028 is a very critical year, as it is when political leadership in the Philippines will occur. As US presence in the Philippines becomes robust, China will again adjust its tactics from physical aggression in the West Philippine Sea to softer tactics like cyberwarfare and influencing the Philippine elections in 2028. Already, we can see such at play with China seemingly agreeing to do joint patrols with the Philippine Coast Guard. Such was never seen before when the US was still out of the picture.
Chinese strategy is right out of the Sun Tzu playbook. When the enemy is strong, appear weak and retreat; When he is weak, show your true strength and attack. In line with this, China has already seen the resolve of the US relative to Iran and Venezuela. It has no reason to doubt US resolve under a leader like Trump. I also think that militarily, the PLA is overrated in the sense that its combat experience is limited relative to the US which has constantly been at war since World War II.
It boggles the mind how Xi Jinping, with no military background, had just rid himself of the two top-most, seasoned generals respected by the PLA. While Xi has hinted at 2027 to be a pivotal year for reunification with Taiwan, it could well be that this is simply a diversion. 2028 or even 2029 would be a better time to pull off an invasion with Trump and Marcos both out of office.
If early polls are believable, the CCP’s choice is the frontrunner to be the next Philippine leader. Just like her father, Sara Duterte is expected to simply be his copy-cat. Never mind that the former leader is now being tried for crimes against humanity by the International Criminal Court in The Hague. Perhaps, humanity is simply divided between voters for the common good and those just for themselves. But such is the vulnerability of democracies throughout the world. It worked when it assumed that all voters are of the same mind when it came to moral values and always choosing the common good over myopic, narrow interests.
Democracy results from people’s combined choices at the macro-level. At the micro-level, each individual voter is saddled by his human condition. Man has always been tempted and influenced by every possible kind of force to choose one way or the other. He may make the right choice. Or he can make the wrong one. But at least he gets to choose. In non-democracies, people don’t get to choose at all. It’s already chosen for them – by those who rule indefinitely and not subject to the people’s assessment of their accountability.
In the United States, everything’s different now. Trump made sure of that. And the Americans who put him there. America has shown to the world that it is no longer what it used to be – the champion of freedom.
While Trump is doing all he can to unilaterally advance what he or the Republican Party thinks is best for America in the 21st century, hard domestic institutions are pushing back. While all values and principles seem clear in the U.S. Constitution, these are now ironically, unilaterally interpreted by the prevailing administration to advance their (or Trump’s) agenda.
The growing unpopularity of the Trump administration at home will likely result in a Democratic victory at the polls come 2028. A thorn on the side of the incumbent leader, which will not likely go away, is the Epstein files where he is implicated. Some analysts think the attacks on Venezuela and Mexico and threat against Greenland are foreign related actions designed to divert attention away from Trump’s alleged involvement in the Epstein files at home. If there is truth to the damaging files and who they involve, then their impact on the US leader and global security will indeed be adverse at the very least.
The files are the height of blackmail at the highest levels of global elite circles. They also underscore the unchanging reality about how the national elites of the world use the multitudes in their respective nations merely to advance their small circle of interests but not those for the common good of all peoples. Worse, if true, criminal indictments could follow given the revelations by some lawmakers that many acts in the files constitute criminal violations, some heinous.
While Trump and his administration have done much to change America, the same can also be undone by a succeeding leader who is elected by the American people. The stigma from what’s happened might remain for a time, but it can eventually dissipate when the world sees the old America resurrected from the ashes of a failed authoritarianism.
Such are both the strength and likewise, weakness, of democracies. The finite periods limiting political administrations are meant to ensure that power is regularly restored back to the people. It is not so in non-democratic nations. There is also the nature of the conduct of elections. While so-called hybrid democracies hold elections, such political exercises are meant only to present a semblance of legitimacy. But such elections are controlled and the election outcomes already preconceived. Worse are rigged elections in non-hybrid but full democracies, like the Philippines, where the voting process is undermined and results are manipulated to favor otherwise losing candidates. This is neither a criticism of democracy, nor an argument for authoritarianism.
Hands down, the former is the better model. Unless governance isn’t pro-people but pro-leader alone. My final point is that while America may have the most mature, sober institutions, which has made it a superpower, its vulnerability lies in its current leader whose irrational personality and dubious character has become America’s number one threat to its security, and the world’s.