President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr. hosted Polish President Karol Nawrocki at the Malacañan Palace on October 6. Official handout.
Manuel Mogato | November 2, 2026
Poland and the three Baltic States’ strategic interests have shifted from Europe to the Indo-Pacific as fears grow over Russian and Chinese activity along their borders.
They have aligned with the United States and the United Kingdom, seeking a broad security umbrella from aggressive neighbors. (Also read: Europe and NATO’s interests in the Indo-Pacific region)
In exchange for protection, Poland and Lithuania also sought strategic partnerships with the Philippines during high-level visits in the last two years.
Poland’s foreign minister Radoslaw Sikorski and Lithuania’s defense minister, Dovile Sakaliene, visited the Philippines in 2024 and 2025, respectively, before Polish President Karol Nawrocki met with President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. in Manila last month.
Poland and Lithuania have called on the Philippines and other Southeast Asian states to rally support behind Ukraine.
The two countries were more interested in security cooperation, such as military technical cooperation and maritime security, instead of trade and economic partnerships.
China’s activities in the South China Sea were almost similar to Russian activities in Eastern Europe, as both regions share a “similar” dangerous situation.
Thus, Sakaliene proposed the creation of a US- and EU-led coalition against China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran, which she called “a new axis of evil.”
Under Manila’s chairmanship of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) this year, both Poland and Lithuania acceded to the bloc’s Treaty of Amity and Cooperation (TAC), adding them to the growing list of dialogue partners.
The Philippines is more interested in Poland, an emerging military power in Eastern Europe with robust defense industries. It has also increased its military capabilities, catching up with France and Germany. (Also read: Poland completes Black Hawk delivery to Philippines)
For instance, Warsaw has supplied the Philippines with brand-new combat utility helicopters: PZL W3 Sokol and Sikorsky S-76i Black Hawk.
Thus, Nawrocki’s trip also aimed to cement defense cooperation in military education and training as well as logistics.
The two countries also planned to expand defense industrial collaboration and technology exchanges, and strengthen cybersecurity, intelligence sharing, and maritime domain awareness to safeguard critical digital and maritime infrastructure.
Poland’s Indo-Pacific shift coincided with worsening crises in the European Union, the weakening of France and Germany’s power, and increasing turbulence between the United States and Europe.
As a result, Washington exerted greater influence over Poland and the Baltic States’ foreign policies, as seen in the progress of relations with Indo-Pacific countries, particularly with the Philippines.
Moreover, Warsaw, Riga, Vilnius, and Tallinn hardened their rhetoric toward Beijing over the South China Sea, supporting Washington’s concept of a “free and open Indo-Pacific”.
On the surface, the Philippines would welcome any support from Poland and the Baltic States in its efforts to pressure China to comply with the 2016 arbitral ruling and end its illegal, coercive, aggressive, and dangerous (ICAD) activities in the West Philippine Sea. (Also read: The Dutch are back in Manila after 400 years, not for the spices, but to protect trade routes)
However, Poland and the Baltic States’ interests in the region could further raise tensions, especially with Sakaliene’s proposal for a US-centered new security architecture in the region.
Incidentally, US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth proposed a new US-ASEAN security framework on defense cooperation during a recent ASEAN Defense Ministers Meeting (ADMM) Plus summit in Cebu.
Hegseth did not elaborate on the proposal, but it was seen as aimed at China.
Beijing may view it as an escalation, further moving toward a possible confrontation.