Regime Change? It Actually Depends…
By: COL Dencio S. Acop (Ret), PhD, CPP | Published: November 20, 2025
Reading Time: 9 minutes
It’s unbelievable! We’re back to coup talk in the Philippines! It almost sounds like 1987 or 1989 all over again – a familiar episode through Philippine history which happened to coincide with my time in active-duty service. A gung-ho but naïve officer of the Philippine Constabulary Special Action Force (SAF), I was among many young officers back then who silently preferred a military take-over rather than see a government fall to the Communist Party of the Philippines – New People’s Army.
While the SAF and other loyal units provided the muscle to repel the growing ranks of rebels through the Armed Forces of the Philippines, some of us also remained distrustful of left-wing personalities and forces whom we suspected of infiltrating the new constitutional government of President Corazon Aquino. And that wasn’t the only issue. Corruption and the lust for power because of it have always lain at the core of everything that is wrong in the Philippines. Scheming politicians and domestic elites keen on maintaining their petty interests and dynasties used idealistic, active-duty soldiers with reformist rhetoric like saving the republic from incompetent leaders willing to sleep with the enemy just to safeguard their narrow interests.
In fairness to the man, General Fidel Ramos, the AFP Chief of Staff and later Secretary of National Defense, would chastise us, saying, “You hotheads! We’ve been down that path before and look where it got us! Let’s give the government of Cory a chance – anyway, she’s doing everything she can given all, and she needs our help.” (Also read: A template for regime change)
That was that! We all just lined up behind him after that and fought one attempted coup after another launched by fellow soldiers equally lethal as we were. That was a sad episode in the history of the professional Philippine military when brother soldier fought against brother soldier on the behest of undeserving civilian political leaders instead of fighting a common enemy and absolute threat to national security which were the local communists and secessionists.
Today, a seemingly similar and grim scenario once again stares Filipinos in the face. So, what’s it going to be? What are the merits and demerits of a regime change in the Philippines at this time in 2025?
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First, let’s talk about the demerits – the bad news first before the good. Let’s assume that a regime change is successful, though, to be honest, I do not see how it can. So, there is a change in government, then what? Who takes over from Ferdinand Marcos Jr.? (which we will later refer to as BBM) – The vice-president, Sara Duterte? She’s even worse than Marcos! Personally, I am not a fan of BBM, so if some are thinking that I am, the clear answer is “no, I am not.”
I helped oust his father in 1986 as a member of the SAF and the Reform the Armed Forces Movement. I never liked BBM then. The same sentiment still holds. But that’s not the point of this article. Between Sara Duterte and BBM, I’d rather have BBM leading the country. He is the lesser evil. The vice-president is a living epitome of a very sad reality in Philippine politics today.
While the country needs a competent and honest leader, it got a most dishonest and incompetent one whose only claim to her existence is being the daughter of Rodrigo Duterte – not even a good role model to follow and one that could also land her at The Hague. Okay, now I hear someone shouting “but BBM is also dishonest and incompetent, even a drug-user!” To that, I’d reply, “BBM has one quality the VP doesn’t possess – the ability to make sober, rational decisions like not selling to a long-time enemy, China, run by the Chinese Communist Party.”
If for anything at all, this difference between the two is the factor that is the most compelling. Let us all be reminded that the critical national issue at stake is not just domestic politics, but national security. These intramurals between BBM and his government and the VP and her minions lie at the tip of a regional iceberg and crossroad of a potential global war.
Recall that this was the situation in China just before the Second World War. The nationalist forces under General Chiang Kai-shek and the communists under Mao Tse-tung were at it when the global war broke out. To effectively repel a foreign invader, Imperial Japan, the two forces momentarily buried their hatchets against each other to fight this common enemy. When Japan was defeated, the local civil war resumed and the nationalists eventually fled to the island of Formosa, now called Taiwan. Now, assess this historical factoid versus what’s happening in and outside the Philippines.
A second demerit is that China will be back in the Philippines in a Sara Duterte regime. How many Filipinos really want that? I’m pretty sure the local fishermen in the West Philippine Sea wouldn’t! So would every Filipino who understands what national sovereignty and territorial integrity mean!
While there are Filipinos who rationalize that being “allied” to China is the way of the future and therefore inevitable, I’d say call it what you want but that’s treason and these people ought to be prosecuted and shot if they deserved it. The leadership and managerial styles of Rodrigo Duterte and his daughter, Sara, are one and the same.
Now, the blanket umbrellas that once protected them are now being pulled back. There are two umbrellas, one slightly bigger than the other. The smaller umbrella is the protection afforded by being mayor of Davao City against the local rule of law. Meanwhile, the bigger umbrella came to be useful when the two Duterte’s (each in their own term) expanded their jurisdiction to the national level rule of law.
There is, in fact, a third umbrella – an extra-large one – and this is the support that China continues to provide the Duterte machinery so long as they cater to its hegemonic ambitions first through the Asia-Pacific region and then the rest of the world. If the Duterte supporters are bold in their actions against the BBM administration, they are doing it not because they are sick to their stomachs about corruption (i.e., they are also corrupt themselves), but because they want the Duterte’s back in political power, which is also what China wants.
The intensity of China’s interference in Philippine affairs gets its signal from local developments. The Chinese Communist Party has always been good at executing its policies to make them appear invisible relative to the entities it undermines. Even when confronted with evidence, China’s spokespeople deny any wrongdoing and always present a different defensive narrative, however preposterous it sounds.
In the run-up to a possible Taiwan invasion, the Philippines plays a critical role to the People’s Liberation Army in terms of enabling not only its offense from the near south but also its defense from any actions from the United States’ Indo-Pacific Command. A regime change back to its former ally certainly has added dividends to the CCP-PLA in the event of a break-up in hostilities.
And the third demerit is that the United States will be forced to step in to prevent the Philippines from being totally controlled by China, breaking up its First Island Chain of Defense and Offense. The Bashi Channel between Taiwan and the Philippines’ Batanes Islands is the only surface passageway from the Western Pacific Ocean to the South China Sea and on to the Indian Ocean through the Strait of Malacca.
The frequent visits by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth are certainly not because he likes scuba diving in Palawan. As we write, billions in arms investments are already being poured into the region to supply the demands of war which are what arms are for. Overall, the present government of President Donald Trump is trying to go head-to-head with China trying to halt its march and reassert US global dominance.
Short of actual hostilities, the world is already seeing all instruments of national power being used by powerful nations toward gaining the upper hand to serve their national interests. Trump is using tariffs to off-balance China and Russia, among others. While the Philippines has other defense allies, her main benefactor is still the United States.
Under an administration that is friendly to it, the US can maximize commitments made under the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty to canalize Philippine defense spending initiatives favorable to it under the guise of mutually favorable interoperability and emotional investments originating from Bataan and Corregidor in World War II. It will not be surprising, therefore, if not only Chinese but also American shadow-makers are now operating clandestinely through the ongoing rallies and low-volume conversations especially through the diplomatic and defense channels.
Finally, the only merit of any regime change in the Philippines is that it does not occur. This is the counter argument which advances that while there appears to be a reason for changing the government, the purported cure is worse than the disease at least for now. For one, extra-constitutional regime change violates the rule of law. The act, by itself, is self-defeating. There are legal processes in place to elect a new leader. By the signs on the ground, any extra-constitutional power grab is bound to fail.
Firstly, the rule of law is still relatively in favor of all law-abiding citizens, including members of the Armed Forces, and other security services. The AFP Chief of Staff, General Romeo Brawner, has already come out in public reassuring the citizenry that no such coup, hinted about by pro-Duterte forces, can succeed even if it transpires.
Secondly, the experience factor is still fresh in the minds of people that power grabs carry no legitimacy. Any reformist desire for change must be carried out through peaceful endeavors enshrined by the Constitution. The quest for good governance has always been in the Constitution and in people’s faiths. We only need to come together collectively to bring about a common good, not divisive politics aimed at serving the interests of a once powerful, regional cult that has been exposed for what it really is and fallen out of grace.
Thirdly, a coup cannot succeed without help from a foreign power. While those behind the exercise may be banking on China for help, it is improbable that China will go all the way out for them because it is not in China’s interest to do so at this time, even with the Taiwan project waiting in the wings.
The main reason for this is China’s aversion to prematurely offending the US before the appointed time. China thinks that, especially with a leader like Trump, it could be an unnecessary risk to force the US to take unfavorable action against it when it is still taking actions to catch up militarily. China has already made painstaking gains over the years to increase its global power, biding its time and hiding its strength at the same time. It is not about to take a foolish step in the Philippines merely to massage the egos of misguided retirees and washed-up politicians.
As a final word, no extra-constitutional exercise can succeed anywhere unless the elements that made the EDSA People Power Revolution of 1986 successful are all in place. First, there is a corrupt leader whose time is up. Second, that leader develops a conscience and begins to side with the people without knowing it. Third, there is a credible, alternative leader who can replace the incumbent.
Fourth, people suddenly develop courage to the extent that they are no longer afraid to die for something greater than themselves. Fifth, military leaders grow or follow their conscience to do the right thing for God and country. Sixth, intervention from a foreign power is exercised altruistically whether that foreign power likes it or not. Finally, people acknowledge the intervention of divine power. God save the Philippines!
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