RP Spearheads US Reestablishment of Deterrence in Asia-Pacific: Evolving Truths and Developments
By: COL Dencio S. Acop (Ret), PhD, CPP | Published: April 16, 2025
Reading Time: 10 minutes
Given recent developments focused on China and the United States, one thing has become clear: the Philippines now spearheads the reestablishment of deterrence in the Asia-Pacific region by the Trump administration.
This new development has three implications. First, while US support bodes well for Philippine defense against China, US pivot to Asia could also intensify China’s efforts to establish itself as hegemon in the region. Second, before the US could firmly deter China by strengthening its allied power in China’s backyard, China could decide to move up its invasion of Taiwan well ahead of the 2049 centennial anniversary of communism in China. And third, Xi Jinping’s deteriorating health and hold on power in China will undermine China’s established long-term trajectory as the ensuing power struggles both within the Chinese Communist Party and the People’s Liberation Army will have their untold consequences impacting the region and possibly the rest of the world.
First, while America’s support bodes well for Philippine defense against China, US pivot to Asia could also intensify China’s actions to establish itself as regional hegemon. China may not yet be ready to frontally confront American forces at this time but it can still assert itself in other ways with other countries in the region.
For some time now, the world has been aware of China’s bold aggressions particularly in the Asia-Pacific. While China may think it is now all-powerful, it also took a gamble when it boldly announced this new-found power following years of being in the shadows. Reacting to Chinese aggression, especially its unilaterally-declared ownership of almost the entire South China Sea threatening freedom of navigation, ignoring co-claimants to contested territories, and endlessly provoking the internationally recognized state of Taiwan, countries of the world have begun to push-back against China. But there is one kind of push-back that is hard to ignore.
Until today, a nuclear superpower has not said and done before China that it is reestablishing deterrence in the Indo-Pacific region. We are now seeing what this reestablishment means. This deterrence is holistic: political, economic, psycho-social, and military.
It is meant to address China’s race against time to acquire as many nuclear warheads as can be developed to deter other nuclear powers like the US from interfering in its sphere of influence that does not recognize international law and order. It is meant to encourage allies to increase defense spending to be at par with China’s.
Subscribe to the API Newsletter
Bite-sized updates sent straight to your inbox.
Success!
First Name
Last Name
By signing up, you agree to our User Agreement and Privacy Policy & Cookie Statement. This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.
The US has vowed its commitment to defend Taiwan and the Philippines, two countries incessantly bullied by China. US officials have been frequently visiting the region expressing US support to allies against China. In his recent visit to Manila, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro that the “US is ‘doubling down’ on its alliance with the Philippines in the face of what he called ‘Communist China’s aggression in the region’.”
He added that he and “President Donald Trump want to express the ‘ironclad’ commitment we have to the Mutual Defense Treaty and to the partnership economically and militarily.”
The US is deploying not only weapons systems but other war-related logistics like communications systems to the Philippines. For instance, the US is transferring the US Navy-Marine Expeditionary Ship Interdiction System (NMESIS) ahead of RP-US “Balikatan” ’25. The Armed Forces of the Philippines will be acquiring $5.58B worth of F-16 fighter jets. More will be forthcoming.
In the words of Hegseth himself: “We intend for these efforts to boost both of our economies and strengthen supply chain resilience. These efforts will accelerate the defense partnership and ensure that the alliance is postured to address the most consequential challenges in the Indo-Pacific region”. The Philippines has also partnered with other allies in the region like Japan, Australia, and South Korea, among others. There is for instance the Multilateral Maritime Cooperative Activity.
Reacting to US support for Manila, China was quick to respond. Its Foreign Ministry in Manila said: “Any cooperation between the United States and the Philippines should not target or harm any third party, nor should it involve spreading unfounded accusations to incite confrontation and heighten tensions in the region”.
Second, China could decide to move up its invasion of Taiwan well ahead of the 2049 centennial anniversary before the US could firmly deter China by strengthening its allied power in the Indo-Pacific. With a new US administration that is determined to curb China’s growing power in the region and the world, the Chinese leadership is seriously considering its decision on the Taiwan question.
It had hoped that with all the political, economic, psychological, and military pressures unleashed on Taiwan over the years, the island-state would finally relent to be reunited with China. But with the international support it has been getting, Taiwan has so far managed to be resilient against Chinese coercion. That they have survived this long despite overwhelming odds only illustrates the Taiwanese people’s determination not to be taken and their courageous will to fight for their homeland.
On the part of China, its drawn-out vow to regain its renegade province has proved to be a test of its own making. Taking Taiwan by force will lead to war which will be fought not just by the two states. It will spark a regional, even global war. This leads us to the Philippines, a neighbor only 763 miles (1,228 kilometers) to the south.
It has long been my assessment that the Philippines will be used by China as a springboard for a possible Taiwanese invasion. Militarily, the Philippines’ strategic geographical location makes it a perfect spot for launching naval and air operations against Taiwan as well as blockade operations against advancing reinforcements from the east and south into the South China Sea.
The Chinese government must have been elated when the Americans had to leave their naval bases in the Philippines in 1991. The long-term value of the Philippine archipelago to Chinese hegemony and retaking of Taiwan was never lost to the Chinese Communist Party. The islands have their economic and military values to China.
It is no wonder that China has made every conceivable effort to advance Chinese interests at the expense of the Philippines. The abundant waters surrounding the archipelago already have their return on investment in the rich marine and mineral resources which Chinese fishermen and militia have been illegally harvesting. Well within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone and traditional fishing grounds, Mischief Reef has been controlled by China since 1995.
Former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte befriended China during his term in 2016 to 2022 and pivoted the Philippines away from its long-time ally the US. This friendship opened the Philippines to Communist China in ways never seen or done before. It allowed the People’s Liberation Army to infiltrate the country. An insidious but powerful methodology that is in China’s arsenal to advance Chinese interests over any other country’s is its exploitation and manipulation of social media using false narratives.
For instance, despite Duterte’s arrest and ongoing trial in The Hague for crimes against humanity by the International Criminal Court, Duterte still maintains a huge following among Filipinos. Domestic politics is so divided between Duterte and his followers and the incumbent Marcos and his. Now, part of this divide is their political affiliations.
For instance, just because Marcos is now viewed as a US ally – a starkly different posture from that of his predecessor Duterte who courted China – Marcos’ popularity rating is suddenly plummeting logically so that Duterte-affiliated candidates may have better chances of winning in the upcoming mid-term elections.
For China, the wins of Duterte politicians in the Philippines pays dividends for it too, sustaining its foothold in the country enabled by the now detained leader. In short, the government and the Armed Forces of the Philippines also need to watch out for the enemies within in the run-up to the Taiwanese invasion.
Unwitting or willing Duterte supporters may feel they are just being loyal to the Duterte’s or even to the country but the false narratives, cyber-manipulation, and fomenting civil unrest which China is so good at are all in favor of Chinese interest.
Unless directly armed by the Chinese, local destabilizers have no chance of winning the AFP over to their side. The heads of the AFP and PNP as well as the major service commanders have publicly assured the Filipino people that the security services are unanimous in defending the constitution and territorial integrity of the Philippines.
AFP chief General Romeo Brawner said: “The AFP is a professional, unified, and non-partisan institution, committed to its constitutional mandate of defending the nation and the Filipino people.”
For his part, Army chief Lieutenant General Roy Galido added that the army will “remain professional and focused on the task given by higher headquarters.”
PNP chief Police General Rommel Marbil reported that he “released a memo calling on regional offices and support units, including the elite Special Action Force, to tighten security measures countrywide to be fully prepared to respond to any developments.”
I had served with both Roy and Rommel in the service back in the old days and am personally glad they are the individuals in charge. It is only unfortunate that China is dividing the Philippines to serve its own national interest at the expense of its neighbor. Hopefully, misguided Filipinos will come to their senses and choose to become patriots rather than local traitors and foreign adjuncts of the Communist Chinese.
And third, Xi Jinping’s deteriorating health and hold on power in China will undermine China’s established long-term trajectory as the ensuing power struggles both within the Chinese Communist Party and the People’s Liberation Army will have their untold consequences impacting the region and possibly the rest of the world.
No leader, however powerful, stays in power forever. There’s always a reason for a departure from power: old age, health issues, war, or assassination. Xi Jinping has been in power since 2013. It has only been twelve years. Nevertheless, the burden of responsibility and power struggles can take their toll on a man’s health.
Xi has been rumored lately to be in poor or deteriorating health. Aside from this, there are also reports about continuing power struggles within the Chinese Communist Party and within the People’s Liberation Army. No one rises to power without a power struggle. Xi rose to power too by eliminating his competition whether they came from the party or the military.
Recently, top senior military officials have been disappearing one by one. Analysts closely following China assess that it could be one of two possibilities. One, Xi has become like Josef Stalin purging a senior military general whom he once made in charge of purging other PLA officers not loyal enough to Xi under the guise of corruption.
Two, one or two cliques of military officers victimized by the Xi purges are now getting back at Xi’s lieutenants and possibly Xi himself, eventually. The significance of this analysis really is not what happens to Xi but what happens to the rest of us as a result of what Xi began or what chaos ensues when no strong man succeeds another strong man removed from the picture.
Unlike in the Deng Xiao Ping era, China in the past years under Xi managed to consolidate everything into a small elite party within the Communist Party. This over-centralization means that China will take years to adjust to a collective leadership way of doing things again after having gotten used to almost one-man rule for more than a decade.
What happens to all the BRI and global building initiatives? What happens to China’s economy and nuclear program? What happens to Taiwan? What happens to challenging America and liberal democracy – when the rationale and impetus of China’s grand strategy has been the survival of Communism and the Communist Party by rivaling the United States – a long-time China dream that catapulted Xi to power in the first place?
The post RP Spearheads US Reestablishment of Deterrence in Asia-Pacific: Evolving Truths and Developments appeared first on asiapacificinsights.com.