On Taiwan and the Philippines: Lessons from World War II
By: COL Dencio S. Acop (Ret), PhD, CPP | Published: December 31, 2025
Reading Time: 7 minutes
PERTH, AUSTRALIA — Just a quick review of the facts from World War II already gives us some key ideas about what it would be like if China invaded Taiwan. When Japan invaded the Philippines beginning 8 December 1941, the first thing the Japanese Imperial Army did was to cripple American air power on the archipelago. Unfortunately, General Douglas MacArthur, who commanded American and Filipino forces, was not quick enough to take decisive action following the sneak attack on Pearl Harbor just a day before on December 7.
The Japanese merely did a repeat of that attack on the Philippines destroying aircraft on the ground at Clark, Nichols, Iba, and John Hay airfields, Cavite navy docks, and catching U.S. forces off guard. Two days later (Dec 10), Japanese troops landed on Vigan and Aparri from Formosa (Taiwan) followed by major landings at Lingayen Gulf and Lamon Bay, outflanking U.S. and Filipino defenders. General Mac Arthur then ordered a strategic retreat to Bataan Peninsula and Corregidor Island. Defending forces could not hold out long enough for strategic reinforcements to arrive as the Allied priority was the European theater.
With enemy naval blockade and relentless attacks, the U.S. and Filipino defenders were forced to surrender on 9 April 1942. Surprise and coordination, air superiority, and strategic positioning were Japan’s key success factors. The invasion was part of a coordinated Japanese offensive across Southeast Asia. The initial bombings crippled U.S. air power making ground support difficult. And the neutralization of American bases cleared the path for conquering the Dutch East Indies.
Fast forward to 2025, the criticality of these American bases is something that short-sighted Filipinos couldn’t see when they terminated the lease of U.S. bases in the Philippines in 1991. The balance of power which impacts the Philippines and Taiwan would probably not be what it is today if American air and sea powers were still in the Philippines. (Also read: Why does the Air Force need a dedicated fighter trainer aircraft?)
Unlike Filipinos, the Chinese Communist Party has a longer, more strategic outlook. Taiwan was never lost on the Chinese for regaining it back. The departure of American bases was an opportunity China could not forego in the Philippines. If the CCP could not legally put up its bases on Philippine soil, it would do so even illegally. And that’s what China did.
Subscribe to the API Newsletter
Bite-sized updates sent straight to your inbox.
Success!
First Name
Last Name
By signing up, you agree to our User Agreement and Privacy Policy & Cookie Statement. This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.
The Philippines should learn the above lessons fast. While the accounts depict warfighting some 84 years ago, the principles of war remain the same. Like a chess game, generals wargame the anticipated actions of the adversary and line up a series of contingent reactions and counteractions. The first phase in warfighting is intelligence and counterintelligence. The enemy will try to jam his adversary’s signal intelligence and tactical communications to throw it off in disarray and chaos thereby losing its efficiency and effectiveness.
In earlier days, human intelligence (HUMINT) played a large part in this phase. However, in today’s era of cyber warfare, artificial intelligence, and quantum computing, enemies feel empowered to take on even a formidable adversary due to these assessed technical advantages. The second phase is the deployment of air power. Corollary to this is the deployment of anti-air power. Airfields will always be critical in any war theater. Aircraft can deliver lethality faster than any other weapons system. Third is naval power which has the advantage of delivering lethality in bulk covering far distances using surface and sub-surface capabilities. And fourth are the ground forces that put boots on the ground to close in on the enemy and bring about decisive victory. These include amphibious marine forces.
In today’s operations, not only do all three branches operate in combined mode but jointly as well to include interoperability with allies. Task forces will normally be organized to accomplish specific missions. Unlike in World War II, unmanned drones and bots are now regular components of protagonist armies. The aim of every war is to subdue the enemy quickly with overwhelming power. Thus, attacking enemy centers of gravity are the priority: enemy communications and counter-communications, command and control, high value targets like key weapons systems, and logistics trains and depots.
While drones and bots may be seen by some as an automatic advantage, this may not necessarily be the case as these machines are also not error-free. AI and quantum computing are still in developmental phases. If a quick victory is elusive, war can drag on forever and become too costly in terms of lives and logistics. Political pressure from inside and outside is another factor that could abruptly end a war.
However, if the enemy invader does have the resources to conduct a long war, the defender will be forced to rely upon the external support of allies materially and psychologically. Wars today are no longer doable without interference from other countries. Signed United Nations commitments to the rule of law, defense alliances, and fear for their own national security compel nations to support other countries with similar values and concerns as theirs. Thus, for instance, NATO countries have been supporting Ukraine against invader Russia. China and Russia support the PLO and Hamas and are aligned with the “Axis of Resistance” (Iran, Syria, Hezbollah) against Israel.
The US, Japan, Australia, Canada, and European Union “informally” support Taiwan (due to the “One China” policy). US presence in the Philippines makes the latter a target for China in case of a Taiwan invasion. If the Philippines is also attacked by China relative to Taiwan, several countries which are Philippine allies, will be involved: the US (of course), Japan, Australia, Canada, and possibly India, Vietnam, South Korea, and New Zealand.
Unlike in the Second World War, forces that may attack the Philippines in case of a Taiwanese invasion will not be coming from “Formosa” but the Spratly Islands west of Palawan. China has built a military base there capable of the mission. US and other allied forces could support Taiwan from the Philippines which is only 112 kilometers (70 miles) away across the narrow but strategic Bashi Channel. This waterway, closest to Taiwan, connects the Western Pacific Ocean into the South China Sea. It will be a key battle terrain in the event of a Taiwan invasion because there is no other. (Also read: Taiwan raises defense spending to build air defense to counter China’s threats)
You can just imagine the volume of submarines, carriers, aircraft, and destroyers (not to mention drones) that will be drawn into this tight body of water in the event of a firefight. In a nostalgic sense, the opportunity will also allow US (and possibly even Filipino) forces to return the favor Japan did to them 84 years ago except that Japan is now an ally and China is the enemy.
The Philippines is part of the United States’ First Island Chain that includes Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Borneo providing both a strategic barrier and assurance of freedom of navigation protecting American national interests through the South China Sea in the Indo-Pacific region. (Podcast: Episode 4: Task Force Philippines and America’s new movements in the Asia-Pacific Region)
In 1914, the United States (Army Corps of Engineers) had built the infrastructure that would allow efficient freedom of navigation circumnavigating the world. This is the Panama Canal connecting the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans.
Bashi Channel is just one of strategic global waterways allowing international passage without having to take much longer routes. Such is the importance of Taiwan and the Philippines along with their political and economic values as well. In case of conflict, the US and allies could pass through the Philippines to send forces against Chinese aggression in the South China Sea and Bashi Channel. While air and sea power may seem self-sufficient, they are for the short but not the long term.
The indefinite advantages of both space and time can only be afforded by land. The Philippines, therefore, will essentially become a land base for allied support to Taiwan. Even if it is not mentioned in the 2025 US National Security Strategy document, the Philippines is an indispensable ally of the western world for the reasons outlined here. It is fortunate to now enjoy a tangible defense relationship with the country it has a 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty with. (Podcast: Episode 5: 2025 in review)
If it was still the previous leadership in power, the country would be in a precarious state. Still, the Philippine leadership should do more to better engage allies it depends on. For one, it does not help its cause to reject US arms sales when it has trillions in pesos lost to worthless corruption. Such sends the wrong signals to allies especially when the country is sorely in need of help. Critically, the Philippines also needs to put its own house in order first to attain credibility and bankability.
The post On Taiwan and the Philippines: Lessons from World War II appeared first on asiapacificinsights.com.