The Unlikelihood of a Successful Coup in the Philippines
By: Colonel Dencio S. Acop (Ret), PhD | Published: December 12, 2024
Reading Time: 5 minutes
Boston, Massachusetts – A coup in the Philippines can always happen but it won’t be successful.
I had been a participant in a coup, fought against coups, and saw enough of it to know this.
There is, of course, a history of why coups have occurred in hapless countries in the world. Sometimes, coups have succeeded and I don’t know if we have bothered to study why they did. Mostly, however, attempted coups have failed.
The Philippines has experienced one successful coup in 1986 and every failed coup attempt ever since.
A new one today, if it ever comes to pass, will also surely fail.
Throughout the history of nations, countries have risen and fallen through the intervention and decadence of military leaders.
Kings and emperors of long ago were military leaders, foremost, before they became politicians. Then, as the world saw fit, professional soldiers became relegated to the craft they knew best – killing and dying for astute civilian leaders who mastered the art of deceitful craftsmanship for eternal, personal glory at the expense of avowed selfless service to their constituency.
Even monarchs, supposedly God’s chosen, failed the test of heroic integrity and virtuous honesty while serving God’s people.
Military leaders, steeped in the art and science of leadership and virtuous honor, occasionally stepped in to remove corrupt political leaders, temporarily or permanently.
Through the years following World War II and before most democracies were born, men of the sword with honor deposed corrupt civilian leaders from Asia to South America.
Some of these military leaders ruled temporarily; others ruled permanently and themselves became corrupted by power and privilege.
The Philippines saw its first taste of a coup in February 1986. The Filipino dictator, who forcibly ruled for most of his twenty years in power, was ousted by an idealistic faction of the Philippine military backed by people power.
However, as it turned out, while the military faction was idealistic, its political patron was not and wanted power for himself.
It was too late as legitimate political power had already been handed over to Corazon Aquino, the true winner of the snap elections conducted the year earlier.
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The originally idealistic faction, now turned rogue, supported a feeble attempt by loyalists of the deposed leader who began a rebellion in late 1986. As a result, the faction was disbanded.
Their political leader was removed from power and replaced by a more loyal defense secretary.
Nevertheless, the disbanded faction still managed to mount a bloody coup in August 1987. The coup failed. The faction was pursued and prosecuted. After some hiatus, it again launched a bloodier attempt in December 1989 which also failed. Following some jail time, a magnanimous government offered reconciliatory options to the rebels: amnesty in exchange for loyalty to the Constitution.
However, a heavy penalty for military rebellion was institutionalized. Rebellion was a heinous crime. Since then, no military faction has dared launch a coup.
Several arguments can be pointed out as to why the coup attempts in the Philippines failed after the first one. But why was there a successful one?
At first glance, the most glaring reason for the success of the 1986 coup was People Power. What is not so obvious is the fact that had it not been for U.S. intervention, the whole episode would not have been bloodless.
The coming together of three key ingredients sealed the fate of successful regime change in the Philippines during that period: credible military rebellion, legitimate people power, and global power intervention.
A final point is: Why would a military coup launched today not be successful? First, there isn’t any credible reason why a professional faction of the military should turn against its hierarchy.
Why would it do that? What could be most critical that it will initiate a self-imploding action as turning upon itself? The Philippine military has its hands full fighting several insurgencies and facing Chinese incursions in the West Philippine Sea. Second, what could be gained by the military’s taking sides with either the president or vice president? Nothing.
The AFP only needs to stay within its constitutionally approved mandate which is to protect the will of the people, uphold national sovereignty, and safeguard territorial integrity. Third, the matter about the will of the people, if such is an issue, is for the people to decide and not the military.
The military is the defender of the state. It is not the state. But the people are the state.
Fourth, there is the critical matter of foreign power intervention. Unlike in the old days before we kicked out the Americans from our shores, there are today at least two foreign powers on our shores.
Thus, the balancing equation to be calculated is no longer as simple as it used to be. On whose side is the Philippines? Or, rather, which foreign power is on the side of the Philippines? Really?
This situation is critical as a false move may start a shooting war Filipinos cannot win.
A final point I wish to make is this: Is the local military leadership still idealistic? I say that the politico-military doctrine of civilian supremacy over the military has come to a head with the forces of reality laying bare that the doctrine is indeed full of holes.
What if the values of military honor, duty, and country no longer jibe with the pragmatic values of the quibbling politician? Can subordinate officers with honor influence their pragmatic civilian superiors without honor? Or will it be the other way around instead? Which is that the men of honor cease to be?
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