Viable alternative to Middle East oil
Southeast Asian countries will be flocking to Russia to secure crude oil as US-Iran conflict remains unresolved, forgoing potential diplomatic sanctions from Western powers, Manuel Mogato writes.
Manuel Mogato | April 27, 2026
MANILA — At a recent South Asian country’s diplomatic reception, the Russian ambassador was literally mobbed by diplomats due to one particular interest — Russian crude supply.
Everybody seems interested to talk to the Russian envoy when before the war in Iran, most diplomats in Manila do not show interest with him. (Also read: Russian oil could save the Philippines’ supply woes)
Moscow’s ambassador is often left chatting with a few diplomats.
On a larger scale, Southeast Asian states have shown tremendous interest in sourcing oil supply from Russia after the United States extended its waiver of buying Russian crude by another month to May 16.
Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam have expressed interests in acquiring crude oil from the Russian Far East, which is much closer from the Middle East.
So far, only the Philippines has bought from Russia after Petron, a privately-owned oil refinery, signed a contract for 2.48 million barrels from Russian’s Far East. (Also read: Friends to all, enemies to no one)
Petron lost about 4 million barrels when the Strait of Hormuz was closed in late February due to the war with Israel and the United States.
Malaysian and Indonesian leaders have visited Moscow recently although there were no reports if oil deals were secured.
Only Jakarta made an announcement that Moscow had promised to export about 150 million barrels of crude oil.
Russia has become the viable alternative source of energy products to the Middle East in terms of distance and volume.
It seemed impossible for most Southeast Asian states to source crude oil from West Africa, Latin America, and from the North America.
For instance, Russia has about 200 million barrels of crude oil floating in tankers around the world and ready to be shipped to customers.
But sanctions imposed by European states and the United States prevented Russia from selling oil to other countries apart from China, India, and other countries with closer relations.
China, alone, is Russia’s largest customer of crude oil, with with nearly a fifth of global supply coming from Russia in 2024, or about 2.2 million barrels per day.
Western countries have been preventing Russia from trading its oil to prevent Moscow from a lucrative source of revenues to fund the war in Ukraine.
Ukraine has also criticized the US decision to extend the waiver, but Washington has no choice because most of its allies needed oil as supply from the Middle East dwindled.
The United States lifted sanctions on Russia, allowing it to sell crude oil for a month until April 11 as global pump prices soar and supply tightened after bombing Iran in late February through March.
Buying oil from Russia may likely create frictions with the United States, Europe, and Ukraine in the long term.
But, for most Southeast Asian nations, they are not concerned with diplomatic repercussions from the United States, Europe and Ukraine for buying crude oil from Russia.
They are more concerned with domestic social and economic pressures to feed their oil-thirsty industry, including transportation, agriculture, and power.
These Southeast Asian states, of course, has to balance between short-term need for oil supply and long-term relations with powerful allies, such as the United States and Europe.
Thus, the Philippines, the most staunchly security ally of the United States in the region, heaved a sigh of relief that Washington extended its waiver. (Also read: US plans to set up fuel storage facilities in Mindanao)
However, the steady flow of Russian oil is also doubtful because most of its production goes to China and India.
Fewer supply can be sent to the Philippines and other Southeast Asian states. Its own production were also affected by Ukrainian attacks in the Baltic and Black Sea.
For now, Russia is still the most viable alternative source of fuel supply until the conflict in the Middle East ends as well as in Ukraine.
In June, Southeast Asian countries can further explore oil cooperation with Russia when Moscow hosts an ASEAN-Russia meeting in Kazan.
It will be an opportunity for Southeast Asian states to secure oil deals with Russia if the conflict drags on for months.
Thus, the Russian ambassador in Manila, and perhaps, in other Southeast Asian capitals, will remain popular during diplomatic receptions in the the time being.
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