When is D-Day for China’s Kinetic War on Taiwan?
By: COL Dencio S Acop (Ret) | Published: June 6, 2025
Reading Time: 6 minutes
China’s invasion of what it calls its renegade province of Taiwan is not a question of “if” but “when”. Or not. There are always compelling reasons why a country would invade another country. While China has tangible reasons for pulling back Taiwan into its orbit, her intangible justification is the non-negotiable motive.
Taiwan is China’s unfinished revolution. And this unresolved issue in China’s history is not only within its own domestic affairs but also with foreign interference. Even back then, the Communists would have already taken Taiwan if they could. But back then, they were not as strong. And this comparative strength was not relative to Chiang Kai-shek’s Nationalist Army. China then was only deterred by the United States. Ever the student of Sun Tzu, China therefore decided to bide its time in order to fight another day.
By all indications, today is that day.
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From a total war perspective, China is already at war not only against Taiwan but against all opposed to its path in this regard including the United States. China used to be an isolationist until its economic woes chastised its huge population forcing it to open up to the world.
Ironically, it was the United States under Richard Nixon which opened that door. Perhaps, it was a Nixon strategy to draw China away from the U.S.S.R. Maybe, it was a strategy to tempt the sleeping towards democratic peace and prosperity so that one day, it could finally realize the futility of communism.
Well, China certainly grew its economy from that day forward. In fact, it grew its economy so well that half a century later China managed to surpass the economy of its benefactor. The “enemy of my enemy is my friend” strategy works perfectly for a protagonist but it only does for a time. When that “friend” soon becomes strong, he will no longer be your “friend.”
That “friend” suddenly remembers past hurts suffered at the hands of his old “friend.”
Critics may argue that the “friend” strategy has actually worked in some other cases like the Philippines or Vietnam. But none of these “friends” rose to the level of a superpower that can challenge the reigning superpower either.
While asking when is D-Day for a kinetic war against Taiwan is a valid question, China may have it in her total arsenal the notion that it would be the combined effects of her total war that will eventually bring down Taiwan. The tactics, techniques, and procedures that China is now employing in the Asia-Pacific region and wherever else it can in the world include its gray zone tactics, psychological warfare, lawfare, and twisting around international law as foreign interference in purely domestic affairs. They also include procuring, legally or illegally, access into every conceivable space in and around the region and the world. Small and developing countries, especially those with corrupt leaders, are vulnerable to these TTPs.
For instance, China, through one of its state-owned companies, is reviving a World War II – era airfield on the atoll of Woleai in the Federated States of Micronesia which is approximately 400 miles south of Guam, a U.S. territory and military hub considered key to Washington’s ability to project power in the Asia-Pacific. Micronesia lies along the so-called Second Island Chain which is a string of islands Washington has always viewed as strategically important to containing China in wartime scenarios.
While the U.S. Department of Defense was considering reviving the airfield on Tinian Island in the Northern Mariana Islands, Chine swiftly launched the Woleai project. Gaining a foothold in every nook and cranny of the world has objectives to be gained in terms of advancing its national interests as far as China is concerned.
Especially in a world long dominated by western interests but is now dwindling, filling in those cracks and voids now neglected by these powers presents windows of opportunities with attractive returns on investment for billions of Chinese surplus funds.
Moreover, China believes it can win, not only in Taiwan but in the world. While China provokes the world with aggression, she is no fool. Aggression by the security forces of China is but one in a whole array of TTPs currently at work toward advancing Chinese national interest. But having one of the strongest militaries in the world is a key factor. It is for this reason that China has joined the race for stockpiling as much nuclear firepower arsenal as it can possibly hold.
Every nuclear power in the world, correctly or incorrectly, believes its adversary will surrender before an opponent it cannot possibly defeat without itself getting wiped out off the face of the earth. The capacity to back up diplomacy with military might and financial power over one’s adversary ultimately motivates a powerful country to try out its luck on the world stage through any means possible.
China is in this league of nations now. And while its defense capacity increases even more, its other TTPs are already working 24/7 to dominate China’s enemies. Trump has launched the tariff war to cripple China’s economic dominance. While this move makes some sense, the world is also at a point where the interdependence of global economies through trade markets could mutually jeopardize all trading nations.
While the curbing of migration into America may dent Chinese espionage, such also has weakening effects on a country whose strength has historically benefited from foreign migration. And while the Trump administration tries to exclude its perceived enemies from within, it also creates reactive enemies from both the excluded within and without. America may be losing some essential allies at a time it needs them most. While China has balked, she likewise applauds these setbacks, staying her course.
Finally, recent developments elicit some heads-up from all stakeholders on the roll down to a kinetic war with Taiwan if ever there is one. There are unconfirmed reports of a power struggle within the Chinese Communist Party. If Xi Jinping is really on the way out, it could buy some time against a kinetic war.
Going back to my earlier point, however, the CCP is not foolish enough to invite any full-blown war against Taiwan or the world if it could. But it will continue, as it has done, to provoke Taiwanese capitulation by making kinetic war futile and unnecessary. Provoking a regional, much more global war would not be in China’s national interest and she knows it.
So, her long-term goal and medium-term objectives are to pursue her TTPs and win her place in the world stage. From what is evident, China is confident she can be a regional power in a changing world where no one is a superpower. Russia shares this view with China.
Meanwhile, China is invested heavily into launching generative artificial intelligence platforms that will adversely impact truth infrastructures across every sphere it believes will advance its interests. But therein also lies the danger. It is almost like deputizing robots to one day discern what has always been mankind’s domain – rationalizing against self-destruction.
But for now, we are still faced with the Taiwan question. Will China ever opt for a kinetic war to regain her? The obvious answer is – yes – by all indications. But also – no – by all rationalization.
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