Russian oil could save the Philippines’ supply woes
The Philippines could increase fuel imports from Russia and push for diplomacy in the United States to exempt the country’s Russian oil imports from sanctions, Manuel Mogato writes.
Manuel Mogato | April 1, 2026
MANILA — Russia has suddenly become one of the world’s largest exporters of crude oil as the conflict in the Middle East entered its fifth week, disrupting the flow of petroleum products in the Strait of Hormuz.
There are fears that the oil traffic in the Middle East would be further crippled if the Houthis close the narrow Red Sea.
Most imports of oil-thirsty Asian countries come from the Middle East, making them vulnerable to supply and price shocks.
The Philippines, in particular, would be the most affected since 98 percent of its energy shipment originated from the Middle East. It has limited options to source its energy requirements. (Also read: Marcos places the country under an energy emergency)
Where could the Philippines possibly get its petroleum supply?
It could probably source new oil supply from the United States, South America, and the Western African region. The oil shipment could probably take a month or more to be delivered, and the transport cost could certainly rise. Insurance costs have also increased.
Thus, Russia has become a very lucrative energy supplier, but it now has to compete with other Southeast Asian countries, such as Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam.
Before the Middle East conflict, the United States imposed sanctions on Russian oil, forcing many countries, including the Philippines, to stay away.
The last time the Philippines imported oil from Russia was in 2021, when it sourced less than 10 percent of its consumption.
It returned to Russia due to the tight constraints in the Middle East, and after the United States lifted sanctions.
For continued supply to flow from Russia, the Philippines hopes the sanctions will be lifted beyond April.
Immediately after President Ferdinand Marcos Jr announced a national energy emergency in March, one of the three largest private oil players, Petron, bought 2.48 million barrels to replace 4 million barrels that it lost in the Middle East.
However, the supply from Russia still has to be refined in the country’s sole refinery plant, run by Petron, owned by conglomerate San Miguel Corporation. Petron controls about 30 percent of the country’s oil market.
With a sudden interest in Russian oil, Moscow has to increase its production capacity to more than 4 million barrels a day.
About half of the 3.8 million barrels a day of production is going to India and China, which benefited from the low prices Russia offered before the Iran war.
China sourced about 20 percent of its oil supply from Russia.
India has increased its Russian oil imports to 1.9 million barrels a day, about 1 million barrels a day more than before the Middle East conflict, replacing what it lost of about 2.6 million barrels a day.
India needed 5.5 to 6 million barrels a day to fuel its economy.
The Philippines can also surely take advantage of the US lifting sanctions on Russian oil. Drawing supply from Russia’s Eastern Siberia-Pacific Ocean (ESPO) pipeline would be much closer than the Middle East.
It could probably take less than a week for crude oil shipments from Sakhalin Island to reach Petron’s oil refinery plant in Bataan. It could also cost less in transportation and insurance costs.
The Philippines could increase fuel imports from Russia and push for diplomacy in the United States to exempt the country’s Russian oil imports from sanctions.
The US gave only a month’s waiver, but the Philippines must be bold enough to defy the US sanctions if it wants to survive as a nation.
Fuel supply is at stake. Supply may run out in two months if no shipment arrives.
There are proposals to build much larger storage capacity, but that would take time and need enormous resources.
Meanwhile, the need to secure a stable supply is now. Other Southeast Asian states, under the 1996 Petroleum Agreement, can help ease supply requirements, but they can only 10 percent of the requirements.It is not be enough.
President Ferdinand Marcos Jr has instructed the foreign affairs department to negotiate with the Iranian embassy to allow oil and gas tankers bound for Manila to pass through the Hormuz strait.
However, it is is uncertain if Tehran will allow the tankers to pass.
Marcos should exhaust all efforts to secure oil supply from other sources.
But, it appeared Russia is best alternative. The Philippines should grab it now before other Asian countries take that precious supply.
Petron and the government must secure oil contracts from Russia before Thailand, Vietnam, and Indonesia seal a deal with Russia.
If Petron’s 2 million barrels of imports were cancelled in the first two weeks of the Iran conflict, it must have lost more, probably 10 million barrels after five weeks.
The 2.5 million barrels were not enough. What it secured from Russia this month could just be 40 percent of what should have been delivered from te Middle East. It should import more.
If the US reimposes the sanctions after a month, the Philippines must defy the sanctions. The Philippines is no stranger to defying US sanctions. It did not heed sanctions against Libya, because Tripoli has been helping peace negotiations with Muslim rebels in Mindanao.
Besides, the Philippines does not want to antagonize the Arabs who are hosting millions of Filipino workers and third, it is the vital source of energy.
There is already a crisis, which could mean the survival of the country. It is in the Philippines’ national interests to defy the US sanctions.
This time, the Philippines’ interests are not aligned with the United States.
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