Threats of violence loom as BARMM elects new leaders in September

The Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao is finally holding its parliamentary elections after much delay. But the presence of Islamist militant groups hint it won't be smooth sailing.

Photo by Daniel on Unsplash

Manuel Mogato | August 3, 2026

MANILA — After several postponements, the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) regional parliamentary elections finally get underway in September. (Also read: Storm signals: Instability scars the first Bangsamoro parliamentary election)

However, as the balloting draws near, threats of rising political violence have been observed in some areas, including Special Geographical Areas (SGAs), Lanao del Sur, the two Maguindanao provinces, and Basilan.

It appeared that only Tawi-Tawi is free from any violence that stemmed from clan wars, political rivalry, and the presence of some extremists from non-state actors, like the Islamic State-affiliated Daulah Islamiyah (DI).

There was nothing new in the periodic clan wars and in the intense political rivalries among powerful warlords fighting for control of territories.

But the rivalries intensified when the ruling regional power, the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), a former rebel group that entered into a shaky peace agreement with the government in 2014, was deeply divided between two parties contesting the elections.

For instance, the MILF central committee, led by al Haj Murad Ebrahim, has suspended the head of its military arm, the Bangsamoro Islamic Armed Forces (BIAF), Abdulraof Macacua, for supporting Murad’s rival party - Bangsamoro Federalist Party (BFP).

Murad, who was the BARMM chief minister, headed the United Bangsamoro Justice Party (UBJP). Macacua had replaced him as chief minister.

The MILF central committee also replaced several base commanders, including Dan Asnawie, a member of parliament who headed the 114th Base Command in Basilan. Asnawie refused to give up his command and defied the central committee.

The divisions within the MILF have deeper implications on the ground as the rivalry between the two factions could heighten security threats in the volatile region.

The political violence was exacerbated by clan wars among warlords fighting one another, as well as between traditional political leaders and former rebels for control of territories and the shadow economy. (Also reads: Joint Statement of the Council for Climate and Conflict Action Asia (CCAA) and the Institute for Autonomy and Governance (IAG))

Then, the presence of non-state actors with close links to the Islamic State groups in the Middle East could bring more explosive scenarios in the troubled southern Mindanao area. (Also read: Philippines learns from the Middle East conflict)

Recently, the military launched combat operations against Islamist extremist groups, killing a senior leader Esmael Abubakar, or Commander Bungos of the Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighter (BIFF), in Sultan Kuradat town in Maguindanao del Norte.

Incidentally, Murad’s MILF has a strong presence in Maguindanao del Norte, unlike in the southern part where the BIFF and other IS-affiliated groups operate.

The extremists have also stepped up their attacks, targeting military and police convoys traveling in isolated areas and remote military outposts.

Climate Conflict Action-Asia, a non-governmental organization (NGO) that monitors the intense security situation in the Bangsamoro region, also observed the emergence of a new player, a group called Panenekelan, composed of younger Muslims with radical and violent tendencies that attack local communities.

The group’s savvy use of social media, including artificial intelligence, makes it far more dangerous than the much older MILF fighters and warlords.

Together with Islamist extremists, the new non-state actors, which are likely to be drawn to Islamic State ideology, pose a more serious threat to Bangsamoro’s security.

Thousands of miles away in the Middle East, the situation in the Bangsamoro region could be directly affected as extremists were reportedly freed and sent home to their countries in Southeast Asia.

How many Indonesians, Malaysians, and Filipinos who had joined IS have been freed and may eventually find their way into the swamps and mountains in Muslim Mindanao?

The United States and other Western powers were too busy fighting wars in the Middle East and in Eastern Europe that they neglected extremist groups who remained active.

In fact, the US and Western powers may find some use for them. For instance, the Kurdish rebels in Iraq and Iran have offered their services to Washington to wage war in Iran.

Washington has been looking for groups that it could support to destabilize its adversaries, not only in Iran and Ukraine. US- and Europe-based private military contractors (PMCs) have been actively recruiting foreign mercenaries to fight alongside Ukrainian forces to repel the Russians.

There were reports that the US has been arming Islamist militants imprisoned in Syria with advanced small weapons and gadgets, such as drones, and deploying them in areas under the control of Kurdish rebels and US military forces in Iraq and Iran.

Washington has been working closely with Syria to abolish prisons where ISIS fighters were locked and sent home in Southeast Asia, Europe, and Africa.

Security analysts believed most of these Islamist militants, released from Syrian jails, passed through Turkey using forged documents

Washington has been reshaping the political landscape in the Middle East to eliminate its foremost adversary, Iran.

As some of these Islamist militants have been returning to Southeast Asia, the Philippines becomes vulnerable to the presence of these radical and violent extremists.

The Philippines’ porous borders have made the southern Mindanao area a key transit hub for human, arms, and illegal drugs smuggling. It would be easy for Islamist militants to mix with the cocktail of violent troublemakers in the south. (Also read: The dangerous arms black market)

It would not take long for the Islamist militants released from the Middle East to make their presence felt in the BARMM area, through the Daulah Islamiyah-Hassan group, the remaining Islamic State-affiliated group, operating in the marshlands of Maguindanao de Sur.

The Philippines could again become a sanctuary and training base for Islamist militants that could be sent to other parts of the world, including the Middle East and Eastern Europe.

From the early 2000s, foreign Islamist militants trained and gained experience fighting government forces until the government agreed to negotiate a peace agreement with the MILF on condition that it expel foreign militants from its bases.

The Philippines should avoid repeating that perilous experience. It must ensure the BARMM elections are violence-free and exert pressure for the MILF to end its factionalism and impose strict gun control and dismantle private armies controlled by traditional political leaders, or warlords.

The military and police should intensify combat and law enforcement operations to eradicate Islamist militants and smash new non-state actors.

The stability and security of the BARMM areas, not only during the elections, are important for economic development in one of the country’s poorest, but resource-rich, regions.